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DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players

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1DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:21 am

dennycrane

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Hard enough to guess where players would go but what are they worth? I have seen some good and bad thoughts as to player value so let's put it in a thread and we can look back after the deadline and see how close we were or were not.

Condra - 3rd round pick
Guy is a 4th liner, good PK player. He has been the Sens 12th forward most of the year but he has a role. Cap hit 1.25, real dollars 1.3. Probably makes sense to trade him as you can find a player like him cheaper. And if you really want him back, I'm sure he will be there on July 1st.

2DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:28 am

NEELY


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I would be looking to resign Condra going forward to be honest.

I think the guy that gets moved is Phillips and I think he lands in NYR... for what? 3rd, maybe a 4th.

3DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:51 am

DefenceWinsChampionships


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This is challenging. Are we guessing who gets traded or what our players are worth?

Phillips (Boston, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Washington) - 3rd rd pick or a low-end prospect
Smith (Chicago, Washington, Calgary, Colorado) - 4th/5th rd pick
Michalek (Winnipeg, San Jose) - 2nd rd pick
Wiercioch (Edmonton, Dallas, Columbus, Chicago) - 3rd rd pick
Methot (Edmonton, LA, NYR) - Prospect and 2nd rd pick

My guesses anyway.

4DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:00 pm

tim1_2

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Have we given up on trading a goalie? I think Lehner or Matrix would garner a late 1st rounder or a good prospect or two.

5DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:35 pm

spader

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DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:This is challenging. Are we guessing who gets traded or what our players are worth?

Phillips (Boston, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Washington) - 3rd rd pick or a low-end prospect
Smith (Chicago, Washington, Calgary, Colorado) - 4th/5th rd pick
Michalek (Winnipeg, San Jose) - 2nd rd pick
Wiercioch (Edmonton, Dallas, Columbus, Chicago) - 3rd rd pick
Methot (Edmonton, LA, NYR) - Prospect and 2nd rd pick

My guesses anyway.

That would be a good return.

6DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:45 pm

spader

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dennycrane wrote:Hard enough to guess where players would go but what are they worth? I have seen some good and bad thoughts as to player value so let's put it in a thread and we can look back after the deadline and see how close we were or were not.

Condra - 3rd round pick
Guy is a 4th liner, good PK player. He has been the Sens 12th forward most of the year but he has a role. Cap hit 1.25, real dollars 1.3. Probably makes sense to trade him as you can find a player like him cheaper. And if you really want him back, I'm sure he will be there on July 1st.

Condra was a bright spot in the game against NYR.

7DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:05 pm

dennycrane

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Idea of the thread in my mind was a list of who could be traded and what the yield would be. A few more guesses from me:

Anderson - 1st and a backup (thinking SJ on this one)
Smith - 3rd
Greening - Clarkson Smile
Phillips - low level prospect and low pick
Neil - 2nd (think the demand could be higher than we think)
Methot - 2nd + prospect

It is hard to figure this out as it assumes the player is the only piece leaving Ottawa.



8DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:09 pm

SeawaySensFan

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Except either goalie, the kinds of players we would be willing to move would be worth no more than a 3rd rounder. You might get more if a single team liked 2 players and you'd get a better pick for the pair. Legwand might be worth a 2nd to a team in need of a C.

9DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:57 pm

DefenceWinsChampionships


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SeawaySensFan wrote:Except either goalie, the kinds of players we would be willing to move would be worth no more than a 3rd rounder. You might get more if a single team liked 2 players and you'd get a better pick for the pair. Legwand might be worth a 2nd to a team in need of a C.

Simple economics. Supply drives demand. Not a lot of players available like Neil and Phillips out there. Experienced guys, know their role, don't cost much, unique intangibles. I expect the Rags and Isles to be active, especially for Neil and Phillips.

Smith is a young, cheap 4th liner. Wiercioch a young, cheap 4-6 defenceman. I expect teams pressed against the cap (Chicago, Boston) to be interested. Smith, Wiercioch for Oduya might be a possibility. They may even offer up Bickell, Erixon for cap relief.

10DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:11 pm

SeawaySensFan

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DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:
SeawaySensFan wrote:Except either goalie, the kinds of players we would be willing to move would be worth no more than a 3rd rounder. You might get more if a single team liked 2 players and you'd get a better pick for the pair. Legwand might be worth a 2nd to a team in need of a C.

Simple economics. Supply drives demand. Not a lot of players available like Neil and Phillips out there. Experienced guys, know their role, don't cost much, unique intangibles. I expect the Rags and Isles to be active, especially for Neil and Phillips.

Smith is a young, cheap 4th liner. Wiercioch a young, cheap 4-6 defenceman. I expect teams pressed against the cap (Chicago, Boston) to be interested. Smith, Wiercioch for Oduya might be a possibility. They may even offer up Bickell, Erixon for cap relief.

My estimated returns are based on straight value but I certainly agree with the possibility that market conditions could influence the return. In fact, I am hoping that the factors you have correctly considered have a positive impact on any potential offers coming our way.

If management chooses to leverage our favourable cap position, it could be a windfall in terms of talent.

Bottom line, I think the potential picks and prospects returns might not be as exciting or beneficial as having some legitimate players come back in a cap cutting scenario for some teams.

11DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:17 pm

dennycrane

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I agree that we could see deals like that for cap-cutting teams but I think it would be at the draft, not the deadline.

With the dollar down so much, it will be interesting to see what happens to the cap.

12DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:43 am

spader

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dennycrane wrote:I agree that we could see deals like that for cap-cutting teams but I think it would be at the draft, not the deadline.

With the dollar down so much, it will be interesting to see what happens to the cap.

Did you see this?

There’s a real chance players next summer will vote down the five per cent escalator, which, combined with the plummeting Canadian dollar, could mean a salary cap that peaks at closer to $70 million.

http://www.tsn.ca/upset-over-escrow-nhl-players-consider-move-to-limit-salary-cap-s-climb-1.190027

13DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:21 am

tim1_2

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Could be an interesting trade deadline with so many teams being out of contention by that point.  Hopefully if we're still a borderline team at the time, it doesn't stop Murray from making moves to better the long-term health of the franchise.  Moving a guy like Legwand and possibly a goalie are still things that should be done if the return is right.  Both moves could have good return while still not compromising the possibilities for short-term success.

14DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:57 am

SeawaySensFan

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Let's hope it precipitates a ton of trades!!!

15DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players Empty Re: DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players on Sat Jan 24, 2015 10:32 am

wprager

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spader wrote:
DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:This is challenging. Are we guessing who gets traded or what our players are worth?

Phillips (Boston, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Washington) - 3rd rd pick or a low-end prospect
Smith (Chicago, Washington, Calgary, Colorado) - 4th/5th rd pick
Michalek (Winnipeg, San Jose) - 2nd rd pick
Wiercioch (Edmonton, Dallas, Columbus, Chicago) - 3rd rd pick
Methot (Edmonton, LA, NYR) - Prospect and 2nd rd pick

My guesses anyway.

That would be a good return.

He's been playing well, lately, putting up points.


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