GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

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    Cap'n Clutch
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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by Cap'n Clutch on Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:00 pm

    Or one might say the Hoff can get back to being the man.

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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by Oglethorpe on Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:23 pm

    wprager wrote:I think if paying $3M for a guy who scored 27 and is still learning puts your salary structure out of whack you need a different structure.  If Hoffman does not score 27 or around that number again, well you've only committed to one year.   Greening got 3 x $2.65M and that was a mistake.  If Greening only got 1 x $3M nobody would even be talking about him now.  And Greening never came close to 27.
    Okay, seems simple. Let's say he gets 3.25 this year and scores 18g and 35 points. What do you do ?


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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by spader on Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:54 pm

    Oglethorpe wrote:
    wprager wrote:I think if paying $3M for a guy who scored 27 and is still learning puts your salary structure out of whack you need a different structure.  If Hoffman does not score 27 or around that number again, well you've only committed to one year.   Greening got 3 x $2.65M and that was a mistake.  If Greening only got 1 x $3M nobody would even be talking about him now.  And Greening never came close to 27.
    Okay, seems simple.  Let's say he gets 3.25 this year and scores 18g and 35 points.  What do you do ?  


    I feel like $3.25M is a reasonable price for a 20ish goal guy. Be leaky just got $3.8M x 5 years after one season of that production.
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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by rooneypoo on Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:06 am

    Oglethorpe wrote:
    rooneypoo wrote:
    Oglethorpe wrote:
    rooneypoo wrote:
    tim1_2 wrote:
    rooneypoo wrote:
    Ev wrote:
    rooneypoo wrote:
    Oglethorpe wrote:My opinion is that if the number is something the Sens can live with, then they will buy out Greening and promote Puempel.  If it goes to arb and is north of 3 then the will move Hoffman, keep Greening and promote Pumpel.  Either way I believe they have a higher opinion of Pumpel than Hoffman.

    My opinion is that Hoffman is 100% a part of this team next year regardless of how this plays out, with the only other option being trading him out for an upgrade. I believe the idea that we'd give up good talent over a few 100k's is laughable considering what the last 12 months have shown us. But that's me.

    in this case I think it would be about getting rid of a bad apple in the room more than anything

    Maybe. Kinda feel like that would have happened before now if that were the case. In any event, the idea that we're going to ship a guy off solely over a few 100 Ks is pretty hilarious. But here we go again, Budget!!! explains all.

    You do know that nobody mentioned anything about the budget except for you?

    Have you read the posts quoted here? Can you provide another explanation that isn't about money for the assertion that the org would be happy to keep Hoffman "at a number they can live with" but then would ship him off and play *cough* Greening if the salary figure "went north of 3 million"? What, that would be triggered by moral outrage instead? Or management has an irrational phobia for the number 3?
    It's about where they value him in relation to other inexperienced players.  

    I just don't see it. What you're saying is that we'd rather skate Greening, who was not among our top 12 players last year, in place of Hoffman, who was never sat for a game, based solely on a number... 2.9 mil and under, he plays; 3 mil and over, he's shipped out. That is, we'd rather play one guy who is super underachieving and not worth his contract and therefore very overpaid, because we don't want to pay another guy, who did a lot more for the team last year, because we feel like he might be overpaid relative to the other young guys.

    I think the claim is based on nothing whatsoever, and I have zero clue why anyone would stick to it as you have... but we'll see I guess. To me, this is a no brainer: unless a trade for an upgrade is in the works, Hoffman plays for us next year. The only question is if a 3~ year deal is reached prior to the arbitrator reports back.
    Greening is irrelevant.  With Hoffman around Greening blocks Pumpel and puts the team over their internal budget.  Without Hoffman, Greening becomes the 13th forward and the payroll is within their target.  

    The issue with Hoffman making more than 3 is that it throws the structure out of whack.  The Sens have always believed in slotting salaries depending on their valuation of a players worth to THEIR org.  Hoffman would fall into the Zbad and Stone range of 2M and 2.25M respectively.  

    See, there's the rub. While I believe that the Sens have a budget, I don't believe for a second that you have special access to the figure, nor to the thought process behind how they value their players. That's kinda my point.

    When Hoffman is awarded a one year deal in the $2.5-3 mil range, we'll see who's right.
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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by Oglethorpe on Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:58 am

    One thing I was wrong about is a Greening buyout. He doesn't have a high enough AAV to qualify for the second buyout window.
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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by wprager on Sun Aug 02, 2015 9:01 am

    Oglethorpe wrote:
    wprager wrote:I think if paying $3M for a guy who scored 27 and is still learning puts your salary structure out of whack you need a different structure.  If Hoffman does not score 27 or around that number again, well you've only committed to one year.   Greening got 3 x $2.65M and that was a mistake.  If Greening only got 1 x $3M nobody would even be talking about him now.  And Greening never came close to 27.
    Okay, seems simple.  Let's say he gets 3.25 this year and scores 18g and 35 points.  What do you do ?  


    Would he still be an RFA?  Have to look that up.  If he's still an RFA then the QO has to be $3.25M and they likely waive him.

    EDIT: He's 25 now so, yes, he would still be RFA. I see the problem now. If they give him over $1M on a 1 year the minimum QO the following year is 100% of their contract. I guess that's why the Sens don't want to give him a lot on a one-year deal.


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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by wprager on Sun Aug 02, 2015 9:15 am

    For that second arbitration window the AAV has to be $2.75M but it goes up each year based on average salary. Wonder if it can go down? Just a tad?

    Also the window opens 48 hours after the team's last arbitration hearing. I guess that is supposed to align with the 48 hours the arbitrator has to make a decision. And we all know how that has been turning out.

    In any case, since the Sens didn't buy him out in the first window (from Cup award to June 30) it looks like they have no plans to do so. They'll more likely retain $1M of his salary in a trade.


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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by SeawaySensFan on Sun Aug 02, 2015 9:40 am

    The only indication I have seen that Greening will not be bought out is the GM saying several times that he would not be bought out.
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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by wprager on Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:01 pm

    Misdirection.


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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by PTFlea on Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:12 pm

    How long does this take?
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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by SeawaySensFan on Sun Aug 02, 2015 7:36 pm

    Should be any minute now.
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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by Cap'n Clutch on Sun Aug 02, 2015 7:55 pm

    Waiting on pins and needles old friend.


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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by SeawaySensFan on Mon Aug 03, 2015 9:10 am

    Ok... Should be any minute now.
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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by SeawaySensFan on Mon Aug 03, 2015 9:18 am

    The Hockey Scanner puts any hopes of a settlement to rest:

    Wayne Scanlan ‏@HockeyScanner 1m1 minute ago Ottawa, Ontario

    Re Hoffman: there were no negotiations Sunday. Both sides were just waiting on the arbitrator's decision. They're still waiting. #sens


    Looks like an acrimonious relationship going forward over a few bucks.
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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by wprager on Mon Aug 03, 2015 10:33 am

    "A few"?


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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by Hoff-Machine on Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:59 am

    I gotta say I'm a bit disappointed that the hoffman contract wasn't settled. For one, this waiting on the damn arbitration decision is extremely annoying and doesn't correspond to anything in the CBA which makes it absolute garbage.

    Secondly, our fan base is pretty much the only group that's had to wait through an arb decision in the last few years, and two of them to boot. Everyone has settled, even bernier who got slapped in the face with the initial contract offer.

    Unique situation or not, it's kinda frustrating to be the only team to wait for the arbitrator's decision, which helps explain why we're all on pins and needles when everyone else gets a decision much quicker
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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by wprager on Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:18 pm

    48 hours. Bah!


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    Re: GUESS GAME: Hoffman's Term + Cap Hit

    Post by Cap'n Clutch on Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:34 pm

    SeawaySensFan wrote:Ok... Should be any minute now.

    Which minute? Any you say?


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