The Sens after 20

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    wprager
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    The Sens after 20

    Post by wprager on Mon Nov 23, 2015 12:35 pm

    Well, we are 20 games in to the season, so it's time to look at where we are at the quarter-way mark.  The Sens record is 10-5-5, good for second in the Atlantic (a point and a game-in-hand up on Detroit).  Another way of looking at it, of course, is that the Sens have 10 wins and 10 losses.  How are the Sens doing, in your opinion, using various measurements:

    1. Win/Loss record and winning percentage:
    As already mentioned, the Sens are 2nd in the Division with a 10-5-5 record, good for a 62.5 winning percentage, which is 8th best in the league.

    2. Conference standing:
    2nd in the Division places them 4th in the Conference, so a home ice advantage in the first round if the playoffs started today.  Which they won't, of course.

    3. Offense:
    2.9 goals for per game, puts them 7th in the league.  Shots per game is 28.7, which is 22nd in the league.

    4. Defense:
    2.7 goals against per game, puts them 19th in the league.  Shots against are a league-worst 34.3.

    If you have other parameters to assess the team on, throw them on the pile (individual performances from Karlsson, Stone, Hoffman, for example).  What I'd like to see is whether they are at, below, or above where you expected them to be this season.


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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by tim1_2 on Mon Nov 23, 2015 12:54 pm

    Honestly, they're about where I expected them to be. They are a young team prone to being inconsistent, but with very good goaltending and some very skilled players.

    The past two games have been good omens, and hopefully Ottawa starts to increase shot output while cutting down on shots aganist.
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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by wprager on Mon Nov 23, 2015 1:21 pm

    I forgot to add PK and PP efficiencies.

    5. PP Efficiency:
    22.2%, good for 5th best in the league. And given where it was at the 10-game mark, the PP has been scalding hot of late.

    6. PK Efficiency:
    77.1% and 23rd in the league. And if not for the last two games (shutouts, sens went 7 for 7 on the PK) they would be at 74.6% and tied with Calgary for 28th.


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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by spader on Mon Nov 23, 2015 1:36 pm

    I think players like Stone, Hoffman, Turris, and Ryan are taking those steps forward that we all hoped they would. EK is rounding into form early, which is excellent news. We have guys like Ceci (who is better defensively than SSF thinks, but still has a ways to go), Wier, Lazar, and Cowen who are still waiting to define themselves, or are heading in the wrong direction.

    Anderson has been very good, particularly lately. Hammond is what I hoped he'd be (solid but with room to grow).

    If the Sens can tighten up their D, they'll be just fine, IMO.
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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by wprager on Mon Nov 23, 2015 2:35 pm

    Funny, I guess this pretty much just confirms that it's still pretty early in the season:
    - prior to this recent home stand the Sens had been awful at home
    - prior to the last 6-7 games the PP had been awful
    - prior to the last 2 games were were -7 in goal differential and the PK was 28th


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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by wprager on Mon Nov 23, 2015 2:38 pm

    On the other hand, EK has been playing well since that article by Brennan about how he still hasn't scored a goal (5 goals since then). Turris, Ryan, Hoffman have been playing well for most of the season.

    We are saying that Stone needs to start producing again, but he was leading the team in scoring (points) when he got suspended for 2 games. Wonder if that affected him more than we know. Could he be playing a bit more tentatively now?



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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by wprager on Mon Nov 23, 2015 2:40 pm

    As for Lazar, he was great the last couple of games, playing on the 4th line. And I'm not sure that's a good thing. He needs to find some scoring success in this league; he is not meant to replace Condra.


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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by Flo The Action on Mon Nov 23, 2015 2:44 pm

    Good job prags. Good summary, i like it.

    As far as im concerned im not really happy wih what the team is doing. Yes weve beaten teams that are supposed to be under us but we struggled with teams that are above us. Heck we struggled with teams that are bellow us also. I think the real tests lies ahead of us. The good news is that the team seems to be getting it together a bit more lately. I really hope that BM can find a way to add to this teams defence on the second pairing. We sorely need it.

    I think the offence has room to grow. The PP is good but i think its got room to be better. Just using Stone as an example. I dont think he's actually playing to the level he can actually be at. Which is a good thing. Once he starts finding his scoring touch again i think we'll be in a good position.
    If we can get Mac in there soon that would be a huge help.

    The PK is what it is. Remember when we had one of the best PK under carvel and then we fired him? This is a whole different group ill admit but i wonder what he could of done for this team. I wonder where he is now.

    The standings to me dont reflect this team. To me we are more looking like a team averaging .500 but ill take it. I think we are trending in the right direction. But as SSF would say we need a trade on the blueline.
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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by Flo The Action on Mon Nov 23, 2015 2:48 pm

    wprager wrote:As for Lazar, he was great the last couple of games, playing on the 4th line.  And I'm not sure that's a good thing.  He needs to find some scoring success in this league; he is not meant to replace Condra.
    Ya. I agree. Lazar isnt really developing into what im hoping he would be. This is a time where im not happy with what management has done. Hed be Bingo bound if it was up to me. Play on that first line and learn to score again.
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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by spader on Mon Nov 23, 2015 3:06 pm

    Flo The Action wrote:Good job prags. Good summary, i like it.

    As far as im concerned im not really happy wih what the team is doing. Yes weve beaten teams that are supposed to be under us but we struggled with teams that are above us. Heck we struggled with teams that are bellow us also. I think the real tests lies ahead of us. The good news is that the team seems to be getting it together a bit more lately. I really hope that BM can find a way to add to this teams defence on the second pairing. We sorely need it.

    I think the offence has room to grow. The PP is good but i think its got room to be better. Just using Stone as an example. I dont think he's actually playing to the level he can actually be at. Which is a good thing. Once he starts finding his scoring touch again i think we'll be in a good position.
    If we can get Mac in there soon that would be a huge help.

    The PK is what it is. Remember when we had one of the best PK under carvel and then we fired him? This is a whole different group ill admit but i wonder what he could of done for this team. I wonder where he is now.

    The standings to me dont reflect this team. To me we are more looking like a team averaging .500 but ill take it. I think we are trending in the right direction. But as SSF would say we need a trade on the blueline.

    He is currently the head coach for the St. Lawrence Saints of the ECAC Hockey conference.
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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by wprager on Mon Nov 23, 2015 3:08 pm

    I agree about the standings. We are where we are because the Atlantic is a hot mess. Who would have thunk it that Tampa would have such a huge hangover? Or that Boston would be at the top of the league (or near there) in goals per game and PP and yet be where they are in the standings? Up is down. White is black. Habs are on the way to another Presiden't Choice Trophy (Memories of Stanley). Makes so little sense, sometimes. And, of course, we are a 3 game losing streak of being on the outside, looking in.

    All that said, however, I am perplexed about the PK. We have above average goaltending overall, but below average on the PK. Combine that with taking too many penalties in the first place and it's a wonder we're not in a place where we'd be eyeing the panic button. One of the Sens' bloggers did a very detailed analysis of the PK numbers, using various team and individual advanced stats and comparing those to last year. Other than losing Gryba and Condra, it's the same personnel. But just losing those two does not begin to explain it. Pretty much everyone's numbers are worse than last year. We need to be around the 90% mark, not the 77% we are at now or, worse, the 74% we were two games ago.


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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by tim1_2 on Mon Nov 23, 2015 3:10 pm

    wprager wrote:As for Lazar, he was great the last couple of games, playing on the 4th line.  And I'm not sure that's a good thing.  He needs to find some scoring success in this league; he is not meant to replace Condra.

    Actually, Lazar might be exactly meant to replace Condra. I think we all hoped his upside would be that of a 2nd liner with some scoring ability, but his current role is more suited to his skill set it seems.
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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by wprager on Mon Nov 23, 2015 3:26 pm

    tim1_2 wrote:
    wprager wrote:As for Lazar, he was great the last couple of games, playing on the 4th line.  And I'm not sure that's a good thing.  He needs to find some scoring success in this league; he is not meant to replace Condra.

    Actually, Lazar might be exactly meant to replace Condra.  I think we all hoped his upside would be that of a 2nd liner with some scoring ability, but his current role is more suited to his skill set it seems.

    Their coveted 1st round pick replacing a $1M 4th liner? Nah, I don't think that was quite the plan.

    I thought his upside would be more of a 3rd line player, actually, with grit and leadership. Right now Pageau is outplaying him for that 3LC role and he's not producing enough points for a 3rd line winger.

    To be perfectly honest here, he should be in Bingo with an 'A' on his jersey playing 2nd line minutes plus PP/PK time.


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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by Flo The Action on Mon Nov 23, 2015 3:39 pm

    wprager wrote:I agree about the standings.  We are where we are because the Atlantic is a hot mess.  Who would have thunk it that Tampa would have such a huge hangover?  Or that Boston would be at the top of the league (or near there) in goals per game and PP and yet be where they are in the standings?  Up is down.  White is black.  Habs are on the way to another Presiden't Choice Trophy (Memories of Stanley).  Makes so little sense, sometimes.  And, of course, we are a 3 game losing streak of being on the outside, looking in.

    All that said, however, I am perplexed about the PK.  We have above average goaltending overall, but below average on the PK.  Combine that with taking too many penalties in the first place and it's a wonder we're not in a place where we'd be eyeing the panic button.  One of the Sens' bloggers did a very detailed analysis of the PK numbers, using various team and individual advanced stats and comparing those to last year.  Other than losing Gryba and Condra, it's the same personnel.  But just losing those two does not begin to explain it.  Pretty much everyone's numbers are worse than last year.  We need to be around the 90% mark, not the 77% we are at now or, worse, the 74% we were two games ago.  
    Well you might want to loom at how bad our D can be on the PK. Its a factor to our bad percentage. Our D gets knocked too easily off the puck.
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    Re: The Sens after 20

    Post by tim1_2 on Mon Nov 23, 2015 3:43 pm


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