How do we fix the Senators

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    wprager
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    How do we fix the Senators

    Post by wprager on Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:43 am

    48 games into the season a few things have become clear:


    1. The Sens team defense is the worst in the league, as measured by the number of shots given up per game (30th in the league).
    2. Their goaltending is good, but not good enough to overcome the defensive weaknesses; on too many nights they are also missing "that save".
    3. Contrary to popular belief, our scoring depth is pretty good.  We have 6 players with 30+ and Zibanejad (29) is about to join that company.  Washington is the only other team in the league close (5 at 30+ and another at 28).  We've really been missing contributions from Turris and Stone (Turris' injury and Ston'e suspension before that being contributing factors) but putting the puck in the net has not been a problem before injuries.  I guess you can argue that we are missing depth, in general.
    4. Contrary to another popular belief, the Sens are not an undisciplined team.  They are 22nd in the league in minor penalties taken (and tied for 25th with just 2 bench minors -- the Ghosts of Clouston Past have left the building).  However they are 6th in times short-handed, which likely means more of their penalties are the lazy ones (hooking, tripping, holding) and not the aggressive ones (roughing, where many times both payers end up in the box).  Combined with the league's worst defense and lack of timely saves, and the PK is an issue for this team.
    5. Despite being 7th best in goals scored (and they were top-five before the injuries) the PP is average at best, sitting at 15th overall.  They have zero 5-on-3 and 4-on-3 goals in 5 opportunities.  Is it the personnel? The PP coach? The head coach?  Certainly makes you wonder when Smith/Lazar are out there on PP1 and Hoffman/Prince are left on the bench.
    6. Despite having more money than he would ever need, Melnyk only paid 10% when he bough the Sens, financing the rest. He then lost most of his money and, as a result, the team is operating at a loss due to the heavy debt load. He says he won't sell the team but stranger things have happened. The founder of Cirque de Soleil has more money than he would ever need, and is proposing to use some of that money to develop Le Breton Flats, including adding an NHL arena. If he wins the bid, will Melnyk stubbornly continue to play out in Kanata? Will he go back on his word and arrange a lease? Will he sell the team? Will that fix the Senators? Probably, but not likely in time for 3PM Sunday afternoon.


    So, how do we fix the Senators?  With Turris injured we are down to 4 legit top-six forwards (and that's counting Stone, who is in a horrible slump both defensively and offensively), yet a top-six forward is what it will take to land a top-four defenseman.  Do we try to add some scoring depth?  Are you willing to give up Chabot or White to get some help now?  I know I'm not.  There's no help from Bingo, they have problems of their own.  Can Cameron come to his senses and manage the lineup better (moving swapping Prince/Chiasson, paying Hoffman/Prince on the PP in favor of Smith/Lazar/Chiasson, sitting Neil, playing Wideman instead of right-side-Boro).

    We have until tomorrow to fix this team.


    Last edited by wprager on Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:46 pm; edited 1 time in total


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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by Flo The Action on Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:40 pm

    Well according to garrioch, the price for drouin includes two top prospects. One of which being Chabot. Apperently BM isn't willing to pay that price and I'm good with that. I'd rather move this year's 1st rounder in a deal. What is disturbing is that we are still hearing the focus being on getting a top 6 and not a defenceman. Drouin won't help us much this year. I mean unless the sens are sure they are losing Hoffman and once they would secure drouin they move hoff for shatts??? I dunno. I don't work in the front office.
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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by wprager on Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:13 pm

    The more I think about it the more I feel Drouin is going to be moved in the off-season. Yzerman has dug in his heels and the team is suddenly doing well. There is zero incentive to move him now. Not that Drouin could help the Sens right now (although he is a left-hand shot).

    Shattenkirk is -9 on a team that is +3 in goal differential; by comparison, Karlsson is even on a -18 team (and would be + if not for the recent Claesson-as-a-top-pairing-guy experiment). He is a high-risk, high-reward guy except with a lower reward and higher risj than Karlsson. Who knows, perhaps playing on the 2nd pairing instead of the top would suit him better and his numbers will improve, but then we don't have enough top-four lefties to give him what he probably needs to succeed. It also moves Ceci down to the third pairing (I think he's better than that) unless he is moved in the trade.

    I think Shattenkirk for Ceci makes us stronger, but: (1) what else do we have to give up, (2) what are the chances we re-sign him, (3) would the improvement be enough?



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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by wprager on Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:33 pm

    Looking at pending left-handed UFAs on teams that might be sellers:

    JM Liles, Dan Hamhuis, Nik Grossman, Kris Russell.

    There are others, of course.


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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by Flo The Action on Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:50 pm

    wprager wrote:The more I think about it the more I feel Drouin is going to be moved in the off-season. Yzerman has dug in his heels and the team is suddenly doing well.  There is zero incentive to move him now.   Not that Drouin could help the Sens right now (although he is a left-hand shot).

    Shattenkirk is -9 on a team that is +3 in goal differential; by comparison, Karlsson is even on a -18 team (and would be + if not for the recent Claesson-as-a-top-pairing-guy experiment).  He is a high-risk, high-reward guy except with a lower reward and higher risj than Karlsson.  Who knows, perhaps playing on the 2nd pairing instead of the top would suit him better and his numbers will improve, but then we don't have enough top-four lefties to give him what he probably needs to succeed.  It also moves Ceci down to the third pairing (I think he's better than that) unless he is moved in the trade.

    I think Shattenkirk for Ceci makes us stronger, but: (1) what else do we have to give up, (2) what are the chances we re-sign him, (3) would the improvement be enough?

    I don't see a world where Ceci is still on this team if shatts is traded for. That's either as a result of Ceci being traded elsewhere or part of the trade. Although I think the blues would be looking at a Forward in return. I haven't Dung squat about the sens being in on shatts. So it's wishful thinking I would imagine.

    You could very well be right about yzerman but even him has to realize that if drouin calls it a season and packs it in till he's traded that he's got depreciated value going forward. You have to think that he'll trade him at least before the deadline.
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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by wprager on Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:19 pm

    If anything, sitting out a year will save the receiving team having to teach him a lesson. He's still young enough to turn this around and being put in his place at this age, as opposed to at least perceiving that the other side gave in, is probably beneficial in the long-run.


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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by Flo The Action on Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:36 pm

    wprager wrote:If anything, sitting out a year will save the receiving team having to teach him a lesson.  He's still young enough to turn this around and being put in his place at this age, as opposed to at least perceiving that the other side gave in, is probably beneficial in the long-run.  

    Might be beneficial in punishment but it's time lost on development, time lost on entry level(unless the NHL reverses it but the NHLPA and agent will fight it), and GM's wil use it to try and lowball yzerman going forward. I don't see a situation where the pros outweigh the cons on that logic. There's enough GM's in the mix that there should be some sort of bidding. At this point maybe yzerman is delusional about what he can really get for him. This isn't a case of Tyler seguin. He'd been a lot more productive in the league by the point he got traded in at.
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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by wprager on Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:40 pm

    At this point Yzerman is in no hurry. The team is winning and he's got more important contracts to worry about. So Drouin can sit and sulk, without pay.


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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by Flo The Action on Sat Jan 23, 2016 4:04 pm

    wprager wrote:At this point Yzerman is in no hurry.  The team is winning and he's got more important contracts to worry about.  So Drouin can sit and sulk, without pay.  
    You say this but he should worry. If it translates that his asset will depreciate if the hold out continues then it is in his best interest to find resolution. Especially if it can improve his current team leading into the playoffs.
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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by wprager on Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:01 pm

    True about the playoffs, but don't forget they were a win away from a winner-take-all game 7 without Drouin in the lineup. Quite possibly what they need is the type of player that won't take a former 3rd overall pick to bring in. And as for diminishing returns on Drouin, it's pretty low right now, and could only improve if he starts playing -- and tearing it up. Who knows, he could play well enough to get a late season call up when the roster increases and really showcase himself. Right now it's in both parties' best interest that Drouin plays, and the added pressure on Drouin is that he is not getting paid.


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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by wprager on Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:02 pm

    Anyhow, we're not here to help Yzerman. We've got less than 24 hours to fix the Sens!


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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by SeawaySensFan on Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:57 pm

    wprager wrote:Anyhow, we're not here to help Yzerman.   We've got less than 24 hours to fix the Sens!

    Yzerman needs to help himself with a 12 step program as evidenced by his drug-induced demands.
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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by Flo The Action on Sat Jan 23, 2016 6:44 pm

    wprager wrote:Anyhow, we're not here to help Yzerman.   We've got less than 24 hours to fix the Sens!

    Im afraid that might not happen.
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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by tim1_2 on Sat Jan 23, 2016 7:34 pm

    The Blues want a legit top 6 forward for Shattenkirk, not a mediocre defenceman coming back. So it'd be Hoffman or ZBad or something like that.

    Also, the #1 thing to help the team would be a new owner.
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    Re: How do we fix the Senators

    Post by wprager on Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:39 pm

    tim1_2 wrote:The Blues want a legit top 6 forward for Shattenkirk, not a mediocre defenceman coming back.  So it'd be Hoffman or ZBad or something like that.  

    Also, the #1 thing to help the team would be a new owner.

    I should edit the first post and add that in as an option Smile


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