Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

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    wprager
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    Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by wprager on Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:58 am

    The brackets thread can be used for taunting. Let's keep this one for more generic playoffs discussions.

    After having *zero* Canadian teams in 2016, we now have 5 of 7 Canadian teams playing in the post-season. So a little math -- 71% of Canadian teams are in, versus only 48% of American teams. Is this the year the Cup *finally* comes back home? And if it does, which team has the greatest chance of hoisting it?

    Calgary? Wildcard team but hottest down the stretch.
    Edmonton? 2nd place in a very tough Division.
    Montreal? 1st place in a bad Division but facing the 4th team in the best Division.
    Ottawa? *If* they get past the first round they have a chance at getting to the ECF against a (hopefully) barely-standing Metropolitan champ.
    Toronto? I know the easy answer is "Not a snowflake's chance in Hell" but they do have the Babcock Factor (.569 playoffs winning percentage versus .421 for Trotz)


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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by tim1_2 on Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:20 am

    Toronto will be extremely lucky to win one game.

    I am really looking forward to that SJ/Edmonton series. Should be fantastic. Just need to stay awake to actually watch it.
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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by wprager on Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:24 am

    Sens enter the playoffs a little beat up. Karlsson, Smith and Methot didn't play down the stretch. Karlsson could have played if needed, and Smith is expected to be ready. Methot was holding the stick with his right-hand, only, and wincing noticeably just late last week. Is he going to be ready in two days? Ryan and Neil are ready and played the last game, but are they in game shape? Ceci played the last two game. MacArthur is getting close to game shape as he's not played 3 games with increased ice time each time out.

    I'm sure there are others who are a little banged up.


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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by wprager on Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:30 am

    Leafs lost Andersen for their crucial last game when they *needed* a single point. I am not convinced he will magically be 100% by Thursday (not that it would probably matter all that much). They also had two of their D-men (Zaitsev and Polak) banged up in the game. Polak hurt his leg and eventually returned but he is not 100%. Zaitsev could have a concussion.


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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by DefenceWinsChampionships on Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:31 am

    Calgary: Depends if Elliott shows up. Anaheim's D decimated by injuries. Would be nice to see Lazar score a big goal for them.

    Edmonton: Should be a great series. I see San Jose's experience being the difference, but this has been a long time coming for Edmonton and their players and fans will be revved up.

    Montreal: Rangers seems to always win rd 1. It's going to be a close series but I see the Rags (who have had Mtl's number in the past) winning in 6 at home. My guess is Mtl wins game 1, and loses a lead in game 2 signalling a momentum change in the series. Rangers are also fire on the road.

    Toronto: I think this series will be closer than we think. Washington will win, but the Leafs will keep the games close. Washington in 5, but there could be a few 1 goal games and an OT game.

    Ottawa: The Sens depth will be the difference. If they can stay out of the penalty box they will win the series.
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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by wprager on Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:38 am

    Boston lost Torey Krug in the game against Ottawa and left with a brace and on crutches. Heard somewhere that he was still on crutches yesterday.

    This is funny: https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2017/04/torey-lower-injury.html
    The Boston Globes Fluto Shinzawa tweets that Krug may have suffered the injury in a board battle with Ottawas Shane Prince, while CSNNEs Joe Haggerty thinks it came from minor contract with Viktor Stalberg.

    Then against Washington, they lost Carlo on a huge Ovechkin hit against the boards. He pretty much exploded into him and as Carlo bounced off the boards he looked like a rag-doll.

    The team is very hush-hush about the injuries but it doesn't take a PhD to know they are both hurt and if they are actually in the lineup they have to go after them as much as possible (if they dress 7D that would be a huge clue).

    Now, if you believe Pierre, McAvoy and the other college call-ups will make a huge difference, but unless there are significant injuries I don't see them playing very much (perhaps as that 7th D for Charlie).


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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by wprager on Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:42 am

    Englund and Paul were sent back to Bingo. Guess they are not among the Black Aces (Englund was -3).


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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by wprager on Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:12 am

    Looking over the current roster I have a hard time deciding who sits.

    Turris-Brassard-Pageau are easy choices at center. For wingers we have Hoff, Stone, Burrows, MacArthur, Dzingel, Ryan, Stalberg, Wingels. Smith, assuming he's ready. Who plays 4LC -- Kelly or Smith? Who comes out on wing -- Dzingel, Wingles, Ryan?

    Personally, I would want Smith in against the Bruins, for sure, whether that's wing or 4LC. I want Kelly out but that seems very unlikely.

    What's your ideal lineup?

    Hoff-Turris-Stone
    Smith-Brass-Burrows
    CMac-Pageau-Ryan
    Stalberg-White-Pyatt

    Dzingel has speed but against a team like Boston I would prefer more grit. We have a lot of speed with Hoff, Smith (assuming he's 100%), Stalberg, White, Ryan and, of course, Karlsson.


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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by tim1_2 on Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:33 am

    I think it's a no-brainer that Smith will be playing wing and then maybe taking some faceoffs. I don't even think this is a question. Boucher seems to love Kelly, so he'll be the 4th line C. White won't get a sniff unless injuries happen or we lose the first couple games. And then I think Dzingel issitting....so the forwards will be something like:

    Hoff-Turris-Stone
    Smith-Brass-Burrows
    CMac-Pageau-Ryan
    Stalberg-Kelly-Pyatt

    Which is what Walter posted above, except I've put Kelly in for White.
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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by Cap'n Clutch on Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:51 am

    I actually think we start the playoffs more like this.

    Hoffman-Turris-Stone
    Stalberg-Brassard-Burrows 2A
    C-Mac- Smith - Ryan 2B
    Kelly - Pageau - Pyatt


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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by Ev on Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:02 am

    Bouchwer confirmed Stalberg-Brassard-Burrows will play together

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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by DefenceWinsChampionships on Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:17 am

    Cap'n Clutch wrote:I actually think we start the playoffs more like this.

    Hoffman-Turris-Stone
    Stalberg-Brassard-Burrows 2A
    C-Mac- Smith - Ryan 2B
    Kelly - Pageau - Pyatt

    Not sure Kelly will be in. IMO, it's a toss up between him and Wingels. Kelly is a PK specialist and since Smith has been injured, our PK has been terrible. After some thought I'd prefer Wingels in the lineup I think. Also not sure why Smith would play center seeing that he's been an effective LW for two years now.
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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by Cap'n Clutch on Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:17 am

    Ev wrote:Bouchwer confirmed Stalberg-Brassard-Burrows will play together

    Makes sense since they looked great together. Perhaps Smith is also not close? If the Sens can handle the Bruins without them I say rest guys for round 2 if that's how long they need.

    Smith and Methot could do with the extra healing time if need be.


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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by Cap'n Clutch on Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:21 am

    DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:
    Cap'n Clutch wrote:I actually think we start the playoffs more like this.

    Hoffman-Turris-Stone
    Stalberg-Brassard-Burrows 2A
    C-Mac- Smith - Ryan 2B
    Kelly - Pageau - Pyatt

    Not sure Kelly will be in. IMO, it's a toss up between him and Wingels. Kelly is a PK specialist and since Smith has been injured, our PK has been terrible. After some thought I'd prefer Wingels in the lineup I think. Also not sure why Smith would play center seeing that he's been an effective LW for two years now.

    Well, Boucher has said Stalberg, Brassard and Burrows will play together. Perhaps something like this then?

    C-Mac - Turris - Stone
    Hoffman - Pageau - Ryan
    Stalberg - Brassard - Burrows
    Smith - Kelly - Pyatt

    I don't see them putting Smith on the 4th line personally but, who knows? That looks like a pretty deep team on paper at least.

    Kelly has played every game this season. There's nothing to indicate he won't keep rolling with Kelly into the playoffs.


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    Re: Playoffs 2017: Canadian Edition

    Post by wprager on Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:02 pm

    Krug is unlikely to play and Carlo is definitely out for game 1.

    If Carlo has a concussion protocol dictates 10 days symptoms-free. That would mean he misses at least games 1 & 2 and very likely 3.

    Of course this is playoffs and they haven't officially used the C-word.


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