Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

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    wprager
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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by wprager on Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:33 am

    DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:NYR has the edge in goal. Lundqvist is better and has more playoff experience. But I don't think it's a significant edge. I think the Rags and Sens match up very well against one another. Both teams are more than capable of winning this series.

    He has more experience, for sure. He also has a lot more wear-and-tear, especially this year. Anderson is fresh as a daisy.

    Anderson has played on some poor defensive teams (his playoff shots against per game is 35.5, versus 29.6 for Lundqvist). Over his career his playoff SV% is actually better than Henrik's. While I think it's true that in many cases a higher SV% correlates with higher shot counts (i.e. the narrative that Anderson likes to see a lot of rubber) I still think that we have a slight advantage based on shots given up and saves made.

    I think I'm slowly convincing myself the Sens will sweep.

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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by PTFlea on Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:45 am

    I think the Rangers are going to split up Stepan and Zuc, where Zuc plays with Hayes on a default third line. I read that somewhere that it was due to be changed up, which presents different issues for Ottawa obviously.

    As for the series itself, I don't think this could be much closer. The offense is very close, with the addition of MacArthur and a seemingly healthier Ryan making the depth a wash IMO. The keys, as always, are if your big guns can get some support. Smith, Pageau, Stalberg, Burrows will all be keys to the series in terms of not only containing NY, but also chipping in offensively.

    I'd call the offense even, maybe slightly favouring Ottawa.

    The defence is Ottawa IMO. McDonagh is amazing, obviously, Girardi is nothing special at all and will likely be walked more than once. Holden has looked good from what I've seen (which is not much really), Staal is a tire fire and their third pairing is ok. Meanwhile, even Ottawa's foot soldiers on D are positives in Wideman, Harper, Boro and Claesson. Those are two legit 3rd pairings right there, mostly mobile, some toughness, definitely some offence.

    Advantage Ottawa.

    Goaltending is clearly NY until Anderson dethrones Lundqvist - and even then, ones a HOF goalie, one is not

    Advantage NY

    Coaching: We'll soon find out if AV can adapt to a really frustrating system implemented by Boucher and conversely, we'll see if Boucher can avoid using too much of the trap and lulling ourselves to sleep as well. AV is one of the better coaches out there IMO.

    Advantage NY (barely).

    So:

    Offense: EVEN
    Defence: Ottawa
    Goaltending: NY
    Coaching: NY

    So...even as the day is long. Which PP will show up for Ottawa? The one that almost blew Game 6 by missing glorious chances, or the one that ENDED Game 6? If they continue to miss opportunities, it'll be their downfall, if they can connect at the 21% they were connecting at - then it'll be advantage Ottawa.


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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by wprager on Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:00 am

    Remember when the Rangers came out at the start of the season with guns blazing, scoring 4+ goals per game and being without question the best team in the league? Is this the same team that boasts *on* 4-point player in a 6 game series? What the heck happened?

    Their PP was 0 for 14 prior to finally getting on in G6. It wasn't great in the regular season but it seems to have regressed.

    Kreider had 1 assist (it was a big one but, really, he was taking a shot and it was deflected wide and found Zibanejad, so a bit lucky).

    The greatest scoring chance differential of all 8 series was Montreal with something like 30. Ottawa was second with 11! In other words the Rangers were pretty much blown out of the water by the Smurfs and Lundqvist is the only reason they are still playing.

    I don't think he can keep this up. Not to that level.
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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by wprager on Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:06 am

    As for coaching, Boucher has an edge over Boucher, but Guy can lean on Crawford. I think there is definitely an edge here in being more prepared.

    If our forwards can continue what they started (Ryan+Brassard leading the way, Turris/Stone/Hoffman turning it up, Pageau/Burrows/Smith chipping in as well) then we could have an edge here. But I also think the Rangers forwards will get better.

    The one thing we don't really know anything about is injuries. For example, we just found out that Bergeron had been playing with a sports hernia. I'm sure that Pacioretty has some shoulder or rib injury. What are the odds that Kreider has misteriously disappeared after 82 games? I think he may be playing hurt. and after all the hitting against Montreal there are likely others that are banged up, as well.



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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by PTFlea on Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:32 am

    wprager wrote:Remember when the Rangers came out at the start of the season with guns blazing, scoring 4+ goals per game and being without question the best team in the league?  Is this the same team that boasts *on* 4-point player in a 6 game series?  What the heck happened?

    Their PP was 0 for 14 prior to finally getting on in G6.  It wasn't great in the regular season but it seems to have regressed.

    Kreider had 1 assist (it was a big one but, really, he was taking a shot and it was deflected wide and found Zibanejad, so a bit lucky).  

    The greatest scoring chance differential of all 8 series was Montreal with something like 30.  Ottawa was second with 11!  In other words the Rangers were pretty much blown out of the water by the Smurfs and Lundqvist is the only reason they are still playing.

    I don't think he can keep this up.  Not to that level.

    I think that's a major factor. NY was outplayed and outchanced, but Lundqvist kept them in it. Can he do it twice? Maybe, but it's hard to imagine he'll be able to steal a series twice.
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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by wprager on Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:46 am

    Oh, he can steal more than one series, but maybe not to the same level.


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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by wprager on Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:50 am

    From practice:



    Looks like Wideman is in the dog house. Claesson-Harpur are the third pairing. Forget what I said about Phaneuf-Ceci ice time going down. We're doomed.

    P.S. Slightly tongue-in-cheek. I'm a little concerned about a third pairing in the playoffs with 60 regular season games between the two of them. Afraid in that I think they will get very little ice time, meaning a lot more for Phaneuf-Ceci. That makes me afraid.


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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by DefenceWinsChampionships on Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:57 am

    wprager wrote:From practice:



    Looks like Wideman is in the dog house.  Claesson-Harpur are the third pairing.  Forget what I said about Phaneuf-Ceci ice time going down.  We're doomed.

    P.S. Slightly tongue-in-cheek.  I'm a little concerned about a third pairing in the playoffs with 60 regular season games between the two of them.  Afraid in that I think they will get very little ice time, meaning a lot more for Phaneuf-Ceci.  That makes me afraid.

    Boro hurt. Wideman RHD.
    Boro will replace Claesson if he can play. Wideman is a bit inexplicable but Harpur has been great. Maybe the Sens think they need the size.
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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by wprager on Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:29 pm

    Wideman had a bad game 5, when they failed to finish Boston off on home ice. Looks like he's still in the doghouse.

    Yes, Harpur has played well, hopefully it continues. Concerned a bit about the two of them playing as a pairing. Very little experience.


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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by PTFlea on Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:10 pm

    Claesson is probably better than Wideman at this point, although they could both use to gain some muscle, so it's pretty much a wash. Harper in for Boro is not a negative at all, although Boro is a tank.
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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by tim1_2 on Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:55 pm

    Tons of tickets still available if anyone's thinking about going. I went to two games in the first round and they lost them both, so I think I'll hold off and see how things look for game 5 and maybe game 7.
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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by Cap'n Clutch on Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:23 pm

    I'm going to game 1 Row G in the 300s


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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by wprager on Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:39 pm

    PTFlea wrote:Claesson is probably better than Wideman at this point, although they could both use to gain some muscle, so it's pretty much a wash.  Harper in for Boro is not a negative at all, although Boro is a tank.

    Interestingly, for most of the year (and last year, as well) Wideman has been the Sens best possession metrics guy (Corsi). Claesson -- although the sample size is much smaller -- is pretty much at the same level if not slightly ahead in some categories. There is no secret as to why Claesson was third among our D in points-per-game (he was just slightly behind Phaneuf, who gets half his points on the PP). So 5v5 he's our second most productive defenseman. He never passes up an opportunity to shoot the puck, and wastes no time doing it.

    All that said, the deployment pattern among the D is really telling. Wideman had the most offensive-zone starts as a percentage of total, at 63%. Claesson was next at nearly 58%. Everyone picks on Ceci, but he has the lowest number on the team with 46.6% offensive zone starts (even higher than Phaneuf -- that's probably because of Phaneuf's 2nd unit PP time). I have no idea why Ceci is deployed like that, you'd have to ask Crawford. But it does explain why he's so often hemmed in, fighting to get the puck out and so on. Given that Karlsson is so much better at getting out of our end, maybe they should flip this and give the bulk of the defensive zone starts to Karlsson. Sure, his offensive numbers will decrease, and Ceci's will increase, but I wonder if the overall effect on the team will positive.


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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by wprager on Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:47 pm

    tim1_2 wrote:Tons of tickets still available if anyone's thinking about going.  I went to two games in the first round and they lost them both, so I think I'll hold off and see how things look for game 5 and maybe game 7.

    I'm too busy spending money I don't have on buying stuff for the new house (shutters/blinds, A/C washer/dryer, dishwasher, hardwood flooring, eavestroughs, puppy & supplies, etc.)

    Maybe next year -- smaller house, save on cable ...


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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by DefenceWinsChampionships on Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:57 pm

    wprager wrote:
    tim1_2 wrote:Tons of tickets still available if anyone's thinking about going.  I went to two games in the first round and they lost them both, so I think I'll hold off and see how things look for game 5 and maybe game 7.

    I'm too busy spending money I don't have on buying stuff for the new house (shutters/blinds, A/C washer/dryer, dishwasher, hardwood flooring, eavestroughs, puppy & supplies, etc.)

    Maybe next year -- smaller house, save on cable ...

    0-2 jinx also
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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by Ev on Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:03 pm

    there aren't that any tickets available on ticketmaster. Just on stubhub
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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by wprager on Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:17 pm

    DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:
    wprager wrote:
    tim1_2 wrote:Tons of tickets still available if anyone's thinking about going.  I went to two games in the first round and they lost them both, so I think I'll hold off and see how things look for game 5 and maybe game 7.

    I'm too busy spending money I don't have on buying stuff for the new house (shutters/blinds, A/C washer/dryer, dishwasher, hardwood flooring, eavestroughs, puppy & supplies, etc.)

    Maybe next year -- smaller house, save on cable ...

    0-2 jinx also

    I don't remember the last time I went to a playoff game. Probably game 6 of the Conference Finals between the Flyers and Habs. Montreal lost 4-3 but what a game. My buddy and I got standing room tickets last-second but because everyone was standing, you pretty much had to pull yourself up on the divider behind the last row. Since your hands were busy keeping yourself up in the air, you had to holler and bang your feet on the divider to make noise. I couldn't talk for a couple of days and my shins were all bruised from kicking the divider.

    I think we paid either $8 or $14 per ticket, which is still under $30 today.


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    Re: Sens - Rangers: Round Two Preview

    Post by PTFlea on Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:04 am

    wprager wrote:
    PTFlea wrote:Claesson is probably better than Wideman at this point, although they could both use to gain some muscle, so it's pretty much a wash.  Harper in for Boro is not a negative at all, although Boro is a tank.

    Interestingly, for most of the year (and last year, as well) Wideman has been the Sens best possession metrics guy (Corsi).  Claesson -- although the sample size is much smaller -- is pretty much at the same level if not slightly ahead in some categories.  There is no secret as to why Claesson was third among our D in points-per-game (he was just slightly behind Phaneuf, who gets half his points on the PP).  So 5v5 he's our second most productive defenseman.  He never passes up an opportunity to shoot the puck, and wastes no time doing it.  

    All that said, the deployment pattern among the D is really telling.  Wideman had the most offensive-zone starts as a percentage of total, at 63%.  Claesson was next at nearly 58%.  Everyone picks on Ceci, but he has the lowest number on the team with 46.6% offensive zone starts (even higher than Phaneuf -- that's probably because of Phaneuf's 2nd unit PP time).  I have no idea why Ceci is deployed like that, you'd have to ask Crawford.  But it does explain why he's so often hemmed in, fighting to get the puck out and so on.  Given that Karlsson is so much better at getting out of our end, maybe they should flip this and give the bulk of the defensive zone starts to Karlsson.  Sure, his offensive numbers will decrease, and Ceci's will increase, but I wonder if the overall effect on the team will positive.
    That's the catch 22 though, obviously. 

    I like Claesson,  he has really sneaky offensive skills and jumps into the play really well.  And a great shot.  He's a keeper and it appear harper might be too.

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