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GDT: Islanders @ Senators - Nov 25, 2017, 7:00pm

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Flo The Action


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Ev wrote:Anderson has been bad this season. We're giving up less shots per game. He needs to be better and he needs to focus.

I do agree that he’s not on his game.

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DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Nothing wrong with Anderson. Their #1 shutdown d-man is gone, Karlsson is playing semi-hurt, Phaneuf is junk, Ceci is overrated, Wideman and Boro are hurt, Oduya is 5 years past his prime, and Harpur and Chabot are rookies.

So all this to say, I don't believe depth to be as important as dressing quality players. The Sens need someone to either play with Karlsson or replace one of Ceci/Phaneuf on the 2nd pairing. It's as simple as that.

I actually thought Ryan and Smith both had really good games. It's a matter of time before Bobby gets going again. Smith is still not a top-six player but he definitely is an above average 3rd line winger. And despite Duchene's lack of scoring, he creates something every shift. He's by far the most talented player on the team. I'm happy to see him score.

Aside from goaltending Ottawa's PP is terrible. If they score 1-2 PPG a game they win a few games on this slide. Their confidence is at an all-time low.  They need a win in Mtl this Wednesday or it could be the end of their season.

Their pp was decent to start the year but it seems to have regressed. I’m not sure if it’s guys playing on their offside but I keep noticing guys fumbling to catch passes on the PP, definitely gives enough time for the opposition to react and position itself.

DefenceWinsChampionships


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Ev wrote:Anderson has been bad this season. We're giving up less shots per game. He needs to be better and he needs to focus.

Quantity yes, but shot quality?

wprager

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Some comments on previous posts:

Last year Methot was *not* their #1 shut-down guy, he was just Karlsson's babysitter. Phaneuf-Ceci was their shut-down pairing. Ceci had more ice time per game than Methot.

Anderson is not "fine"

Their PP was not "decent" to start the year, they were something like 0-20 through 7 games. They went on a nice streak that got them into the top-third of the league, then they crashed again.

Regarding shot quality, I don't have this in front of me but someone posted an "expected goals" graph for all the goalies in the league. This one takes into account not just shot quantity but also quality, calculates the "expected" goals and compares that to actual goals allowed. They call it something like "goals saved above average". Needless to say, Bobrovsky leads all the goalies. Anderson was something like second from the bottom!

While looking for that chart I found one that showed these numbers (goals saved above average, normalized to 60 minutes) over a 3 year period and Anderson was middle-of-the-pack, just slightly above average. I didn't check the years but it's very likely that the 3-year span included one up-tick and two down-ticks in his sawtooth SV% chart because I do think and believe that Anderson is an above average goalie.


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DefenceWinsChampionships


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wprager wrote:Some comments on previous posts:

Last year Methot was *not* their #1 shut-down guy, he was just Karlsson's babysitter.  Phaneuf-Ceci was their shut-down pairing.  Ceci had more ice time per game than Methot.

Anderson is not "fine"

Their PP was not "decent" to start the year, they were something like 0-20 through 7 games.  They went on a nice streak that got them into the top-third of the league, then they crashed again.

Regarding shot quality, I don't have this in front of me but someone posted an "expected goals" graph for all the goalies in the league.  This one takes into account not just shot quantity but also quality, calculates the "expected" goals and compares that to actual goals allowed.  They call it something like "goals saved above average".  Needless to say, Bobrovsky leads all the goalies.  Anderson was something like second from the bottom!

While looking for that chart I found one that showed these numbers (goals saved above average, normalized to 60 minutes) over a 3 year period and Anderson was middle-of-the-pack, just slightly above average.    I didn't check the years but it's very likely that the 3-year span included one up-tick and two down-ticks in his sawtooth SV% chart because I do think and believe that Anderson is an above average goalie.

Ice time and matchups are two different things. Methot was our best stay-at-home defenceman last year hands down. I don't care about minutes. Ceci is a jack of all trades but master of none. He's a 5-6 d-man at best. There is no argument to be had that Ceci is a better hockey player than Methot.

I was blown away by Anderson's extension both in terms of money and term. Slotting Dzingel, Smith, and Pyatt in your top six should speak volumes about how bad this team is and/or management's assessment of player value. Ottawa is in trouble unless they find a way to bring another impact player or two to this lineup.

Flo The Action

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DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:
wprager wrote:Some comments on previous posts:

Last year Methot was *not* their #1 shut-down guy, he was just Karlsson's babysitter.  Phaneuf-Ceci was their shut-down pairing.  Ceci had more ice time per game than Methot.

Anderson is not "fine"

Their PP was not "decent" to start the year, they were something like 0-20 through 7 games.  They went on a nice streak that got them into the top-third of the league, then they crashed again.

Regarding shot quality, I don't have this in front of me but someone posted an "expected goals" graph for all the goalies in the league.  This one takes into account not just shot quantity but also quality, calculates the "expected" goals and compares that to actual goals allowed.  They call it something like "goals saved above average".  Needless to say, Bobrovsky leads all the goalies.  Anderson was something like second from the bottom!

While looking for that chart I found one that showed these numbers (goals saved above average, normalized to 60 minutes) over a 3 year period and Anderson was middle-of-the-pack, just slightly above average.    I didn't check the years but it's very likely that the 3-year span included one up-tick and two down-ticks in his sawtooth SV% chart because I do think and believe that Anderson is an above average goalie.

Ice time and matchups are two different things. Methot was our best stay-at-home defenceman last year hands down. I don't care about minutes. Ceci is a jack of all trades but master of none. He's a 5-6 d-man at best. There is no argument to be had that Ceci is a better hockey player than Methot.  

I was blown away by Anderson's extension both in terms of money and term. Slotting Dzingel, Smith, and Pyatt in your top six should speak volumes about how bad this team is and/or management's assessment of player value. Ottawa is in trouble unless they find a way to bring another impact player or two to this lineup.
I think the sloting of Dzingel an Pyatt in the top 6had more to with getting duos in the top 3 lines by having stone-brass, Duchene-ryan, Pageau-Hoffman as a 3 line force with complimentary players. Trying to generate offence on 3 lines, they could have bunched all those players. On two lines but who knows if we’d be more successful with 2 4rth line to complement that after.

wprager

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I never said Ceci was better than Methot. But Ceci got all the tough minutes. Not Methot. Methot rode shotgun on Karlsson's left, staying back while EK did everything else. He was a steady presence and that's about it. He stopped dishing out his hipchecks a couple years ago. He was on the second pairing in Dallas, not exactly known to be strong on the backend.


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Ev

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Methot is close to done with his injuries. Ceci is the better asset

DefenceWinsChampionships


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See I'm still not sure. Ceci may be the better 'asset' but Methot is a better player

tim1_2

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DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:See I'm still not sure. Ceci may be the better 'asset' but Methot is a better player

I'm not so sure anymore. Methot, as others noted, was breaking down. I feel bad for the guy, but protecting Ceci over him was the right call and every GM would've made the same decision.

Ceci takes a lot of heat, but is a pretty functional top 4 d-man....

Oglethorpe

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Ceci will be moved by the draft so those that hate on him better enjoy it while they can.

Flo The Action

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Oglethorpe wrote:Ceci will be moved by the draft so those that hate on him better enjoy it while they can.

Yeah I think that’s the case. Strictly going by the numbers. They will likely try to go with claesson-Karlsson, phaneuf-chabot and Boro-jaros with England as a call up next year.
Maybe sign a cheap vet in the off season for a mill or two.



Edit: unless somehow they manage to move Phaneuf in which case they will probably keep Ceci and move in between claesson and chabot between the top 2 pairing.
Im sure that’s what the org would prefer but likely isn’t happening.


Man a pairing of Jaros and Boro is going to be deadly out there. Players are gonna wind up in the hospital .

Ev

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Oglethorpe wrote:Ceci will be moved by the draft so those that hate on him better enjoy it while they can.

Yeah but they will shift their hatred towards management and say "ugh we could have traded him two years ago for Drouin ugh!"

Oglethorpe

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I think Dorion will recoup a couple draft picks in a Ceci trade.  Unlikely to bring in a player.

Flo The Action

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Ev wrote:
Oglethorpe wrote:Ceci will be moved by the draft so those that hate on him better enjoy it while they can.

Yeah but they will shift their hatred towards management and say "ugh we could have traded him two years ago for Drouin ugh!"

But it would have cost us the addition of white to get Drouin. Possibly a pick too. They must have really liked sergachev or really disliked Drouin by last summer.

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