2018 NHL Entry Draft

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    wprager
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by wprager on Tue May 15, 2018 9:27 pm

    There are several differences between the Pens winning with Crosby and the possibility of the Sens winning with Karlsson:

    1. Karlsson's high-end price tag (on his next contract) would be paired with Ryan's high-end price tag, whereas Crosby's was complemented with Malkin's.

    2. Melnyk is done spending to the cap ceiling, and we didn't have Karlsson in those days (we had Spezza and Heatley and, of course, Alfie, and that got us as far as the Finals.

    3. Crosby has long been considered #1 (with Malkin usually #2), whereas Karlsson has been considered top-three (with Ryan, well, not considered at all).

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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Lagoon on Tue May 15, 2018 10:10 pm

    1) I donít know what Karlssonís next contract will be and I donít know if Ryan will still be a Sen. All I know is moves could be made to improve us.

    2) Who said spending to the cap is the only way to win a Cup?

    3) We arenít Pittsburgh, I get it.

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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by wprager on Tue May 15, 2018 10:28 pm

    Lagoon wrote:1) I donít know what Karlssonís next contract will be and I donít know if Ryan will still be a Sen. All I know is moves could be made to improve us.

    2) Who said spending to the cap is the only way to win a Cup?

    3) We arenít Pittsburgh, I get it.

    Regarding #1: The speculation is that Melnyk has no appetite to buy out Ryan and the only other way he goes would be as a salary dump in a Karlsson trade.

    #2: No-one said it is the only way but when you have a $7M going to Ryan and another $5+ to Gaborik and you're in the lower third of the league in total spending then it makes a large difference.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Flo The Action on Tue May 15, 2018 10:36 pm

    I think we can all agree that the problem is ownership. Whether itís not spending or no appetite for an actual buyout to have room for free agents or trades that would make us better but at a higher cap cost... not to mention appetite to pay kalrsson 10-12 million....

    Yup ownership is the reason.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Lagoon on Tue May 15, 2018 11:21 pm

    Agreed.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Lagoon on Tue May 15, 2018 11:24 pm

    But the draft is coming and we have a lot to look forward to. Hughes, Farabee and Berggren would be a dream.

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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by DefenceWinsChampionships on Wed May 16, 2018 10:00 am

    The point I was trying to make about last year's playoff run was that the Sens won two rounds of which they could have just as easily lost (lots of OT, comeback, and one goal games) to mediocre opponents. Just about every insider and analyst bet against Ottawa, and while proven wrong, they weren't that far off given how close the series were. Something else to consider is the fact that the Sens finished three points ahead of both Boston and Toronto in the standings. Had we played against Toronto I am not sure we would have won that series. Had we ended up playing Washington, which was a real concern going down the stretch, we probably would have lost and we'd be having a completely different conversation right now. The argument I am making is yes, we may have been a goal away from the cup finals, but we were also a goal or two away from losing in the first and second rounds to not so good teams. Washington, Montreal, Columbus, Pittsburgh, NYR finished with more points. We tied a decimated Boston team, finished slightly ahead of a rookie Toronto team, and Tampa had an off year and narrowly missed the playoffs.

    If we are to retain Karlsson at almost double his salary (which for the sake of this argument I will use $11M/year vs $12M), the Sens will be locked into the following (and I am projecting Duchene+Stone extensions and rounding to whole numbers for the sake of easy math):

    Karlsson - $11M
    Ryan - $7M
    Stone - $7M
    Duchene - $8M
    Hoffman - $5M
    Gaborik - $5M
    Anderson - $5M
    Total: $48M

    I believe last year we spent approximately $72M. The above $48M is being spent on 5 forwards, 1 defenceman, and 1 goalie leaving roughly $24M for 15 players (7 forwards, 5 defenceman, 1 goalie and 2 swing players for a 22 person roster). I get that we will have a lot of players on ELCs next season, but that's approximately $1.6M per player to reach the $72M cap, with Ceci needing a new contract, Smith, Condon, Burrows, Dzingel not going anywhere, glaring holes on our defense including needing a top-pair d-man, Phaneuf's retained salary, and an owner who probably isn't going to buy anybody out (no way he buys out Ryan or Gaborik, maybe Burrows but he'll probably be buried in the minors if anything). So we're spending $48M on the same players that we finished 2nd worst in the NHL with.

    Wprager is stating that Karlsson is not Crosby. I agree with him and I don't. Crosby can shoulder a team by himself and while I can argue that Karlsson can do the same, it's different given their positions and supporting casts. I'd argue that Karlsson is a lot like Ovechkin in that they're dominant players but need a good supporting cast around them. Crosby seems to make everyone else around him better. Crosby is also making less than $9M a season. That $2-3M extra that Karlsson will make is huge to a cap team especially when they're anchored with bad contracts at every position and massive holes in the defense.

    If you can move Karlsson and Ryan, approximately $18-20M comes off the board in return for good prospects and/or picks. The money savings is huge and is needed to address the other positions on the team. I get that Karlsson is virtually irreplaceable as a #1 RHD, but what we get back in a trade plus the cap space we have can go a long way in fixing every other area of this team. I believe steps are being made in the right direction by bringing in young goalies and an appetite to play younger players, but we're quickly pricing ourselves out by retaining Duchene, Karlsson, and Stone while having Ryan, Gaborik, Anderson, etc still on multi-year contracts.

    My argument for Ottawa not winning with Karlsson - not because he's a bad player but because we can't afford to keep him given the other contracts we have and the amount of holes and bad contracts on the team. Moving him and Ryan for cap room and assets help make this a much more well-rounded team which I believe is what we need for Ottawa to be successful. We're too dependent on one player which is why we struggled so mightily this year.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Lagoon on Wed May 16, 2018 1:34 pm

    Guess what? Now at least I can see what youíre saying and you give good evidence to support your opinion. If I wasnít so bullish on thinking that last year with the injuries to Karlsson, Wideman and Boro we really struggled with our identity, I might actually believe you in saying we have major issues with this team.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Lagoon on Wed May 16, 2018 2:50 pm

    This is getting ridiculous how much I want Edmontonís #10. Now I hear from Ryan Rishaug that Edmonton is looking for a ďbig nameĒ Dman and suggested Edmonton would do Klefbom and the 10th to Buffalo for Ristolainan. Damn.

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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by DefenceWinsChampionships on Wed May 16, 2018 3:50 pm

    Lagoon wrote:This is getting ridiculous how much I want Edmontonís #10. Now I hear from Ryan Rishaug that Edmonton is looking for a ďbig nameĒ Dman and suggested Edmonton would do Klefbom and the 10th to Buffalo for Ristolainan. Damn.

    Is Ceci > Ristolainan? Hell I'd go Ceci and 22nd for 10 and Klefbom!!

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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by DefenceWinsChampionships on Wed May 16, 2018 4:12 pm

    To my post above, I am still not confident that Boucher can get away from his systems and habits. I think his ability to loosen the reigns will go a long way in determining the success of the Sens next season.

    I also think Dorion needs to let go of his ego and do what he can to get rid of some of his signings. I see little room on our defense for Boro, Harpur, and Claesson on defense if this team is going to be better. If Ceci is a member of this team next year (god forbid) and Karlsson is still around the focus should be:

    Top LHD - Karlsson
    Chabot - Ceci
    Wolanin - Wideman

    One of Harpur, Claesson, or Boro should be retained.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Lagoon on Wed May 16, 2018 7:35 pm

    DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:
    Lagoon wrote:This is getting ridiculous how much I want Edmontonís #10. Now I hear from Ryan Rishaug that Edmonton is looking for a ďbig nameĒ Dman and suggested Edmonton would do Klefbom and the 10th to Buffalo for Ristolainan. Damn.

    Is Ceci > Ristolainan? Hell I'd go Ceci and 22nd for 10 and Klefbom!!
    I donít think Ceci is better and I donít think Iíd want to add 22, but yes, letís make a deal here. Please.†

    If I was Buffalo, Iíd jump at this rumour.

    Risto plays a more offensive role in Buffalo than Ceci does for us so it really isnít a fair comparison to look at stats, but he has shown much more offence and consistently. Also logs more minutes, many more. He plays a bigger game too. I bet heís three inches taller, although heís a rail. Lowest body fat on Buffalo last camp I remember reading. He uses his length well from the games Iíve seen. In saying all that, Klefbom is serviceable and it just goes to show how much I value that #10 pick because like I said, Iíd be all over that rumoured offer if I was Tim Murray.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Lagoon on Wed May 16, 2018 7:44 pm

    DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:To my post above, I am still not confident that Boucher can get away from his systems and habits. I think his ability to loosen the reigns will go a long way in determining the success of the Sens next season.

    I also think Dorion needs to let go of his ego and do what he can to get rid of some of his signings. I see little room on our defense for Boro, Harpur, and Claesson on defense if this team is going to be better. If Ceci is a member of this team next year (god forbid) and Karlsson is still around the focus should be:

    Top LHD - Karlsson
    Chabot - Ceci
    Wolanin - Wideman

    One of Harpur, Claesson, or Boro should be retained.
    Iím done with Boucher and his arrogance. I suspect some of the players were too.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Flo The Action on Wed May 16, 2018 10:14 pm

    Lagoon wrote:
    DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:
    Lagoon wrote:This is getting ridiculous how much I want Edmontonís #10. Now I hear from Ryan Rishaug that Edmonton is looking for a ďbig nameĒ Dman and suggested Edmonton would do Klefbom and the 10th to Buffalo for Ristolainan. Damn.

    Is Ceci > Ristolainan? Hell I'd go Ceci and 22nd for 10 and Klefbom!!
    I donít think Ceci is better and I donít think Iíd want to add 22, but yes, letís make a deal here. Please.†

    If I was Buffalo, Iíd jump at this rumour.

    Risto plays a more offensive role in Buffalo than Ceci does for us so it really isnít a fair comparison to look at stats, but he has shown much more offence and consistently. Also logs more minutes, many more. He plays a bigger game too. I bet heís three inches taller, although heís a rail. Lowest body fat on Buffalo last camp I remember reading. He uses his length well from the games Iíve seen. In saying all that, Klefbom is serviceable and it just goes to show how much I value that #10 pick because like I said, Iíd be all over that rumoured offer if I was Tim Murray.

    Too bad Timmy isnít a GM anymore.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Lagoon on Thu May 17, 2018 5:34 am

    Botteril now, right. Forgot about that.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by wprager on Thu May 17, 2018 7:24 am

    Lagoon wrote:Guess what? Now at least I can see what youíre saying and you give good evidence to support your opinion. If I wasnít so bullish on thinking that last year with the injuries to Karlsson, Wideman and Boro we really struggled with our identity, I might actually believe you in saying we have major issues with this team.
    Your forgetting having one of the worst team SV% in the league.

    There is one major issue on this team. And we all know who that is.


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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by Lagoon on Thu May 17, 2018 8:18 am

    wprager wrote:
    Lagoon wrote:Guess what? Now at least I can see what youíre saying and you give good evidence to support your opinion. If I wasnít so bullish on thinking that last year with the injuries to Karlsson, Wideman and Boro we really struggled with our identity, I might actually believe you in saying we have major issues with this team.
    Your forgetting having one of the worst team SV% in the league.

    There is one major issue on this team. †And we all know who that is.
    I forget lots of things, but that ainít one of them. Are you forgetting Anderson is up and down throughout his whole career? Next year, lights out. I hope we donít make major changes. Whatever player Dorion wants to trade just to say he did for Edmontonís 10th. Thatís it.
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    Re: 2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Post by PTFlea on Thu May 17, 2018 8:33 am

    The more I read about tckachuk, the more I think he'll be awesome in the East.

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