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Flo The Action


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22_4_ever wrote:
Ev wrote: Dancing Dumbo
Flo The Action wrote:Did anyone hear anything else than what was reported on the Watson-Melnyk meeting?

Certainly didn’t sound like there would be a sale eminent. Certainly didn’t sound like there was a good working relationship between the two leading up to this meeting either.

What the Diddle is Melnyk doing? Nothing of this man’s activity makes any sense. Poor businessmanship

Actually everybody was impressed with Melnyk after yesterday. What exactly happened that made no sense or displayed poor businessmanship? There was nothing but positives yesterday as they work towards lebreton

The meeting wasn't so much for Melnyk but it was for Ruddy to make sure the City was on board with his plan.  Melnyk owns the team, but Ruddy and his company are the $$$ behind the development.  Melnyk and the Sens will be a less than 30% partner in the new development, but he does own the team.  Much like Ruddy is the $$$ behind the Landsdowne redevelopment but doesn't own the team.

If Ruddy had left that meeting with an uneasy feeling (like he had after Melnyk shot his mouth off) he would have walked away from the deal and Melnyk would be out of luck with his Labreton Vision.  It's funny hearing Melnyk talk about "We are fully capable of funding our portion of what we need to accomplish”

It's not his money, but Ruddy has it and is the $$$.  This is where the potential sale of the team hinges...if Ruddy walks the team is gone.  On a flip side,  it's rumored that Ruddy had a conversation with Melnyk about getting his and Dung together and put a proper management team in place.  Ruddy knows that Labreton hinges on a pro team playing in the stadium that fans would come see.  The vision is to make $$$ from the other businesses, especially on game nights and that doesn't work with 10k people showing up.  

If it's true, then Ruddy is driving the ship now, and while Melnyk owns the team, as long as Ruddy controls the $$$ around the Labreton venture Melnyk has to play by his rules.  Hopefully this will mean an improved front office staff, and in turn hockey operations.  I guess we'll see.

Oh and btw.  Ruddy and Alfie are members at the same golf club, so........

All very interesting. Melnyk doesn’t strike me as a guy that works well with other though. Has there never been any conversations about Rubby buying the team?

There being split partnerships in lebreton doesn’t bode well for my understanding of team ownership changing hands. It complicates things. I think the lebreton deal makes this franchise very attractive in terms of revenue from the whole project but if it only involves buying the Sens without too much of the other profits then I’m not sure.

I’m obviously not in the know so it’s hard for me to grab the whole picture behind this. But it doesn’t make me feel like we’re anywhere near a change in ownership.

DefenceWinsChampionships


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Veteran
So here is my interpretation of what is happening.

Melnyk remains owner of the Sens but a partial owner of the LeBreton project. If he were to sell he would be looking at a team valuation + the appraised value of partial ownership of a real estate project. Ruddy has a proven track record. So his appraisal of $700M+ is probably pretty accurate ($500M franchise fee + real estate opportunity). This also explains why Melnyk doesn't care to spend or compete right now. To him, the success of the franchise doesn't matter. Whether the Sens win or lose the valuation of the team stays relatively the same. Similar to the RedBlacks the ownership group makes more money on the real estate opportunity at Lansdownse than it does from the Redblacks.  The team's success is negligible in comparison to revenues generated from rent/leasing and revenue streams from other means.  

I personally think there is more money to be made if Ruddy were to own the team. The negative connotations associated with Melnyk would no longer exist and fans would go to more games. But from a business perspective Ruddy doesn't need to own the team to make money on this deal so maybe buying the team from Melnyk is seen as a sunk-cost and a lot of problems that Ruddy just simply doesn't need.

As I stated before Melnyk may be here to stay. Ruddy will make a ton of money by developing the land while Melnyk will make a ton of money by generating a revenue stream at LeBreton. I am curious to know what arrangement they have, ie: who is paying for the stadium and are the Sens going to lease a stadium from Ruddy or own it?

My guess is there will be a formal acquisition of the Sens with Ruddy as a minority partner. For example, Melnyk could sell 40% of the team to Ruddy for $350M which would pay for approx. 50% of a new arena. Ruddy could invest the other 50% but find alternative ways generate money out of Lebreton. Melnyk would retain majority ownership and control of the team, while Ruddy would get the lucrative real estate deal, own a portion of the team, and not have to deal with the day-to-day problems of owning a franchise.

22_4_ever


Sophomore
Sophomore
DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:So here is my interpretation of what is happening.

Melnyk remains owner of the Sens but a partial owner of the LeBreton project. If he were to sell he would be looking at a team valuation + the appraised value of partial ownership of a real estate project. Ruddy has a proven track record. So his appraisal of $700M+ is probably pretty accurate ($500M franchise fee + real estate opportunity). This also explains why Melnyk doesn't care to spend or compete right now. To him, the success of the franchise doesn't matter. Whether the Sens win or lose the valuation of the team stays relatively the same. Similar to the RedBlacks the ownership group makes more money on the real estate opportunity at Lansdownse than it does from the Redblacks.  The team's success is negligible in comparison to revenues generated from rent/leasing and revenue streams from other means.  

I personally think there is more money to be made if Ruddy were to own the team. The negative connotations associated with Melnyk would no longer exist and fans would go to more games. But from a business perspective Ruddy doesn't need to own the team to make money on this deal so maybe buying the team from Melnyk is seen as a sunk-cost and a lot of problems that Ruddy just simply doesn't need.

As I stated before Melnyk may be here to stay. Ruddy will make a ton of money by developing the land while Melnyk will make a ton of money by generating a revenue stream at LeBreton. I am curious to know what arrangement they have, ie: who is paying for the stadium and are the Sens going to lease a stadium from Ruddy or own it?

My guess is there will be a formal acquisition of the Sens with Ruddy as a minority partner. For example, Melnyk could sell 40% of the team to Ruddy for $350M which would pay for approx. 50% of a new arena. Ruddy could invest the other 50% but find alternative ways generate money out of Lebreton. Melnyk would retain majority ownership and control of the team, while Ruddy would get the lucrative real estate deal, own a portion of the team, and not have to deal with the day-to-day problems of owning a franchise.

Just making something clear...in no way am I suggesting Ruddy is trying to buy or take over the team. It's my opinion that he has zero interest in owning a sport franchise. He is a developer, that's it! He was only involved in Landsdowne for the development opportunities, and wanted nothing to do with the team. The same goes for LeBreton...i don't believe that there is any interest in owning the team. There is an interest in making sure the team is viable from a fans standpoint, and as long as he controls the investment and development $$$ he's going to keep a tight leash on Melnyk.

On the flip side, Melnyk is smart enough to know he has to play nice at least until the development is done and then he can do what he wants.

What I do know, is there have been several offers to Melnyk for the team, and is holding fast (whether his believe or by the urging of the NHL) to the Franchise fee valuation of 500 million. The NHL will not allow a team to be sold for less than the franchise fee.

DefenceWinsChampionships


Veteran
Veteran
Right. I am not sure of what Ruddy's intentions are. My guess is Melnyk cannot afford the team, let alone afford to build a new arena, so rather than putting the team up for collateral he may sell a stake of ownership in exchange for the money to invest in the arena. The negotiations of this deal are well above my experience, includes a ton of variables, and is extremely complex. For Melnyk to free up cash he will need to sell a portion of the team. The $150M restructuring deal consolidated his debt and gave him better rates. The Edmonton arena is costing approx. $600M including some exterior development opportunities. What I was trying to state above is that Ruddy will need to have some sort of control over Melnyk to see this through and Melnyk would need to free up cash somehow.

DefenceWinsChampionships


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Veteran
And I am just posturing and don't claim to know anything about what is going on Smile

Flo The Action

Flo The Action
All-Star
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Really sounds like tkachuk wants to make the big club.

Give him his 9 games and let’s see. But I’d rather he get at least half a season in the AHL playing big minutes.

Who knows.

Lagoon

Lagoon
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Flo The Action wrote:Really sounds like tkachuk wants to make the big club.

Give him his 9 games and let’s see. But I’d rather he get at least half a season in the AHL playing big minutes.

Who knows.

London is so much more likely than Belleville. One thing I’ve always maintained, is the NHL is not the place for him this year. I think he’d get pigeonholed by playing pro this year.

DefenceWinsChampionships


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They need to learn from what happened with Lazar. Otherwise he'll end up an offensively challenged 3rd line checker.

tim1_2

tim1_2
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Yeah, I mean obviously Tkachuk is going to say his goal is to be in the NHL this coming season...and there's a small chance he pulls it off, but let's temper expectations here....I mean he had 8 goals for BU last season, and the last thing we want is for him to be with Ottawa riding the bench or playing 11 minutes a night.

Lagoon

Lagoon
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Veteran
DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:They need to learn from what happened with Lazar. Otherwise he'll end up an offensively challenged 3rd line checker.

tim1_2 wrote:Yeah, I mean obviously Tkachuk is going to say his goal is to be in the NHL this coming season...and there's a small chance he pulls it off, but let's temper expectations here....I mean he had 8 goals for BU last season, and the last thing we want is for him to be with Ottawa riding the bench or playing 11 minutes a night.

Exactly. I don’t understand the posters opinions on here that think Brady is either ready to play on the NHL or want him to. And there is a lot of people here that think that.

Ev

Ev
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DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:They need to learn from what happened with Lazar. Otherwise he'll end up an offensively challenged 3rd line checker.

Lazar and Tkachuk really are nothing alike. They're not going to play him in the NHL if he doesn't get minutes.

I can see him playing on Duchene's wing to start the year.

DefenceWinsChampionships


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I think he's physically "ready" but I don't think he's "mentally" or "offensively" ready. 82 games is a long grind for college players. If he plays in London the Sens can push for him to play with Formenton. He'd also have Boqvist and Bouchard on the blueline. They would be stacked.

I've always liked the idea of 'pairs' in hockey vs lines. I think this is going to be a transition year for the Sens who should be focusing on developing chemistry:

- Formenton-Tkachuk pairing in London
- Brown-Batherson in Belleville. I'd put Paul as a complimentary LW for vet presence
- Chlapik-White with Boedker as LW. Same logic as above
- Pageau-Ryan
- Duchene-Stone
- Wolanin-Wideman
- Ceci-bench

I also think there

Ev

Ev
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:I think he's physically "ready" but I don't think he's "mentally" or "offensively" ready. 82 games is a long grind for college players. If he plays in London the Sens can push for him to play with Formenton. He'd also have Boqvist and Bouchard on the blueline. They would be stacked.

I've always liked the idea of 'pairs' in hockey vs lines. I think this is going to be a transition year for the Sens who should be focusing on developing chemistry:

- Formenton-Tkachuk pairing in London
- Brown-Batherson in Belleville. I'd put Paul as a complimentary LW for vet presence
- Chlapik-White with Boedker as LW. Same logic as above
- Pageau-Ryan
- Duchene-Stone
- Wolanin-Wideman
- Ceci-bench

I also think there

The problem with that is Formenton and Tkachuk play the same position. They won't be on the same line unless Tkachuk plays C I guess.

The B-Sens have more talent than London would. I think that makes far more sense.

DefenceWinsChampionships


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Then you stick him with Brown and Batherson and that's your future L2 (or L3) in Ottawa. I just personally think he's better off dominating in the OHL for a year. And I mean dominating. You don't want to mess with this confidence. 8 goals at BU is not a good look. You want his offensive abilities to be the focus of his development.

DefenceWinsChampionships


Veteran
Veteran
And you also don't want him to come across as a spoiled, privileged kids around other players and prospects. By all accounts his head is probably huge. I think he should do his time in the OHL this year

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
It's not just Lazar. We've rushed quite a few players including Zibanejad, Cowen, Ceci.

And we developed some nice players by letting them ripen in the lower leagues, like Hoffman, Stone, Pageau.

But we also ruined some players by leaving then down there for too long, like Lehner. And then when had players like Karlsson.

Point is, you can't paint everyone with the same brush. Let's see how he does at camp , pre-season and a few games.  If he's getting 5-10 minutes playing on the 4th line with scrubs then, absolutely, send him packing to London. But if he's anything like his brother was, let him loose and enjoy.



Last edited by wprager on Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:53 am; edited 1 time in total


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DefenceWinsChampionships


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I agree. It's hard to plan for this. I still think Batherson is the prospect that impresses most out of camp. The guy is sick and our RW is super weak aside from Stone. I think he can push Ryan to 3RW and White to 2C or 3C depending on a Pageau-Ryan combo.

Lagoon

Lagoon
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Veteran
Ev wrote:
DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:I think he's physically "ready" but I don't think he's "mentally" or "offensively" ready. 82 games is a long grind for college players. If he plays in London the Sens can push for him to play with Formenton. He'd also have Boqvist and Bouchard on the blueline. They would be stacked.

I've always liked the idea of 'pairs' in hockey vs lines. I think this is going to be a transition year for the Sens who should be focusing on developing chemistry:

- Formenton-Tkachuk pairing in London
- Brown-Batherson in Belleville. I'd put Paul as a complimentary LW for vet presence
- Chlapik-White with Boedker as LW. Same logic as above
- Pageau-Ryan
- Duchene-Stone
- Wolanin-Wideman
- Ceci-bench

I also think there

The problem with that is Formenton and Tkachuk play the same position. They won't be on the same line unless Tkachuk plays C I guess.

The B-Sens have more talent than London would. I think that makes far more sense.

Tkachuk will be a C/LW in my opinion.

And the Sens would be crazy to put Tkachuk in the A over the O. You just don’t put a potential power forward against men much stronger than him and expect him to thrive and find his confidence and offence. Let him try dominate in all situations in London.

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