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What story lines are you looking forward to most this season?

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PTFlea


Co-Founder
Co-Founder
I wouldn't sell until I got what Seattle paid for their franchise - and of the story.

That's probably why he hadn't sold. Dont cheap out here cirque de Soleil

Flo The Action


Franchise Player
Franchise Player
PTFlea wrote:I wouldn't sell until I got what Seattle paid for their franchise - and of the story.

That's probably why he hadn't sold.  Dont cheap out here cirque de Soleil
You don’t think he could say. “This is the price of the franchise and this is what Seattle is going to pay us. X+Y=Z. Pay me Z.” That’s done all the time when doing valuation on business. Minus the discount rate. Trust me. I doubt that the Seattle money is what could hold up the sale. The right price is likely what’s holding it up.

PTFlea


Co-Founder
Co-Founder
Flo The Action wrote:
PTFlea wrote:I wouldn't sell until I got what Seattle paid for their franchise - and of the story.

That's probably why he hadn't sold.  Dont cheap out here cirque de Soleil
You don’t think he could say. “This is the price of the franchise and this is what Seattle is going to pay us. X+Y=Z. Pay me Z.” That’s done all the time when doing valuation on business. Minus the discount rate. Trust me. I doubt that the Seattle money is what could hold up the sale. The right price is likely what’s holding it up.

Yeah, that's what I meant. I wouldn't sell until I was offered what Seattle paid for their franchise

tim1_2

tim1_2
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
PTFlea wrote:
Flo The Action wrote:
PTFlea wrote:I wouldn't sell until I got what Seattle paid for their franchise - and of the story.

That's probably why he hadn't sold.  Dont cheap out here cirque de Soleil
You don’t think he could say. “This is the price of the franchise and this is what Seattle is going to pay us. X+Y=Z. Pay me Z.” That’s done all the time when doing valuation on business. Minus the discount rate. Trust me. I doubt that the Seattle money is what could hold up the sale. The right price is likely what’s holding it up.

Yeah, that's what I meant.  I wouldn't sell until I was offered what Seattle paid for their franchise

There's a bunch of factors at play here. If he's operating with continual losses like he'd have us all believe, then it would be right to think that he'd want out sooner than later.

What we're all certain of is that he will sell...but when that actually happens is anybody's guess.

Lagoon

Lagoon
Veteran
Veteran
Seattle is already a better hockey team and market than Ottawa.

Seattle is a team made up of roughly 31 of teams 10th best players. Ottawa doesn’t have close to that talent.

Ev

Ev
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
Lagoon wrote:Seattle is already a better hockey team and market than Ottawa.

Seattle is a team made up of roughly 31 of teams 10th best players. Ottawa doesn’t have close to that talent.

Quality of players or record doesn't really impact team value though.

Eventually all teams will be good or bad etc.

DefenceWinsChampionships


Veteran
Veteran
The thing with Ottawa is that it has been and can be a viable hockey market. Fans will return once they start winning games or Melnyk leaves. I do think an accessible arena via public transit will make a huge difference but it seems like that ship has sailed

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
Co-Founder
Lagoon wrote:Seattle is already a better hockey team and market than Ottawa.

Seattle is a team made up of roughly 31 of teams 10th best players. Ottawa doesn’t have close to that talent.

Doesn't matter. It's all about getting a franchise in the NHL.

And Ottawa has a top 10 prospect pool, so that will change quickly enough, but again, it's about getting the franchise and the bar has been set with Seattle IMO.

The question is likely, are you buying Melnyk's debt too and if so, that should be lowered from the cost of sale, but he's probably not allowing it.

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
I don't think anyone was implying that the sling price of the Senators should in any way be related to the franchise fee for Seattle. The x + y = z was related to the valuation of the Ottawa franchise (x) and Melnyk's share of the franchise fee (y) and that the actual sale price is the sum of the two.

Of course the other way to look at it is that the valuation of the Ottawa franchise already included the expansion fee share, and if the club is sold after, the valuation would be adjusted down.

This happens all the time with stock of companies that pay out dividends. The shares take a hit the day after dividends are paid out.


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
Co-Founder
All I'm saying is I wouldn't sell my team for a penny less than the people who bought Seattle paid. If they're buying debt then that factors in - obviously, but I want expansion fee rates for my franchise - and I guarantee Melnyk wouldn't even dream of taking less than 600 million.

DefenceWinsChampionships


Veteran
Veteran
PTFlea wrote:All I'm saying is I wouldn't sell my team for a penny less than the people who bought Seattle paid.  If they're buying debt then that factors in - obviously, but I want expansion fee rates for my franchise - and I guarantee Melnyk wouldn't even dream of taking less than 600 million.

You're right. The value has been set. If Cirque de Soleil wants to buy a franchise, the cost is $600M USD plus a new stadium. Not sure how much the league can intervene if he meets the ownership conditions and fields a team that meets the cap floor. If he continues to make money, or maybe loses a bit knowing his investment is going up in value, he may never sell.

tim1_2

tim1_2
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
PTFlea wrote:
The question is likely, are you buying Melnyk's debt too and if so, that should be lowered from the cost of sale, but he's probably not allowing it.

You 100% would be taking on the Ottawa Senators' debt when you buy the Ottawa Senators, and this will of course be factored into the sale price. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sens debt was $200M+ at this point. We do know that they just refinanced $130M of debt, but I'm fairly confident that wasn't all of it..

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
Co-Founder
tim1_2 wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
The question is likely, are you buying Melnyk's debt too and if so, that should be lowered from the cost of sale, but he's probably not allowing it.

You 100% would be taking on the Ottawa Senators' debt when you buy the Ottawa Senators, and this will of course be factored into the sale price.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Sens debt was $200M+ at this point.  We do know that they just refinanced $130M of debt, but I'm fairly confident that wasn't all of it..

Is that his debt or the team's debt? If it's the team's debt, yes of course it gets lowered from the cost - and thus, we're at a standstill because he's the one that holds the cards right now.

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
Co-Founder
DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:
PTFlea wrote:All I'm saying is I wouldn't sell my team for a penny less than the people who bought Seattle paid.  If they're buying debt then that factors in - obviously, but I want expansion fee rates for my franchise - and I guarantee Melnyk wouldn't even dream of taking less than 600 million.

You're right. The value has been set. If Cirque de Soleil wants to buy a franchise, the cost is $600M USD plus a new stadium. Not sure how much the league can intervene if he meets the ownership conditions and fields a team that meets the cap floor. If he continues to make money, or maybe loses a bit knowing his investment is going up in value, he may never sell.

It could be a LONG, LONG time before he sells, yeah. It would be a most welcome surprise/shock if we heard a sale was coming through.

tim1_2

tim1_2
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
PTFlea wrote:
tim1_2 wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
The question is likely, are you buying Melnyk's debt too and if so, that should be lowered from the cost of sale, but he's probably not allowing it.

You 100% would be taking on the Ottawa Senators' debt when you buy the Ottawa Senators, and this will of course be factored into the sale price.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Sens debt was $200M+ at this point.  We do know that they just refinanced $130M of debt, but I'm fairly confident that wasn't all of it..

Is that his debt or the team's debt?  If it's the team's debt, yes of course it gets lowered from the cost - and thus, we're at a standstill because he's the one that holds the cards right now.

It's the team's debt.

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
Co-Founder
tim1_2 wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
tim1_2 wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
The question is likely, are you buying Melnyk's debt too and if so, that should be lowered from the cost of sale, but he's probably not allowing it.

You 100% would be taking on the Ottawa Senators' debt when you buy the Ottawa Senators, and this will of course be factored into the sale price.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Sens debt was $200M+ at this point.  We do know that they just refinanced $130M of debt, but I'm fairly confident that wasn't all of it..

Is that his debt or the team's debt?  If it's the team's debt, yes of course it gets lowered from the cost - and thus, we're at a standstill because he's the one that holds the cards right now.

It's the team's debt.

Ugh, he's never gonna sell then, he'll just keep refinancing over and over again.

Flo The Action

Flo The Action
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
PTFlea wrote:
tim1_2 wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
tim1_2 wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
The question is likely, are you buying Melnyk's debt too and if so, that should be lowered from the cost of sale, but he's probably not allowing it.

You 100% would be taking on the Ottawa Senators' debt when you buy the Ottawa Senators, and this will of course be factored into the sale price.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Sens debt was $200M+ at this point.  We do know that they just refinanced $130M of debt, but I'm fairly confident that wasn't all of it..

Is that his debt or the team's debt?  If it's the team's debt, yes of course it gets lowered from the cost - and thus, we're at a standstill because he's the one that holds the cards right now.

It's the team's debt.

Ugh, he's never gonna sell then, he'll just keep refinancing over and over again.

He may be forced to sell if the team doesn’t make money and he can’t pay the debt servicing. I don’t Think the people that refinanced his debt are too thrilled about Melnyk pulling out of Lebreton and not seeing any revenues that could have come from profits of the development.

There is a giant financial Dung show brewing for Melnyk IMO and i doubt he managed to refinance his loan at an advantageous rate.

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
Unfortunately we won't know until we know, you know? Until then we can only hope and speculate.

He may really be broke, or he may have the money but is really a tightwad.


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

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