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What story lines are you looking forward to most this season?

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PTFlea


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tim1_2 wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
tim1_2 wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
The question is likely, are you buying Melnyk's debt too and if so, that should be lowered from the cost of sale, but he's probably not allowing it.

You 100% would be taking on the Ottawa Senators' debt when you buy the Ottawa Senators, and this will of course be factored into the sale price.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Sens debt was $200M+ at this point.  We do know that they just refinanced $130M of debt, but I'm fairly confident that wasn't all of it..

Is that his debt or the team's debt?  If it's the team's debt, yes of course it gets lowered from the cost - and thus, we're at a standstill because he's the one that holds the cards right now.

It's the team's debt.

Ugh, he's never gonna sell then, he'll just keep refinancing over and over again.

Flo The Action


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PTFlea wrote:
tim1_2 wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
tim1_2 wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
The question is likely, are you buying Melnyk's debt too and if so, that should be lowered from the cost of sale, but he's probably not allowing it.

You 100% would be taking on the Ottawa Senators' debt when you buy the Ottawa Senators, and this will of course be factored into the sale price.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Sens debt was $200M+ at this point.  We do know that they just refinanced $130M of debt, but I'm fairly confident that wasn't all of it..

Is that his debt or the team's debt?  If it's the team's debt, yes of course it gets lowered from the cost - and thus, we're at a standstill because he's the one that holds the cards right now.

It's the team's debt.

Ugh, he's never gonna sell then, he'll just keep refinancing over and over again.

He may be forced to sell if the team doesn’t make money and he can’t pay the debt servicing. I don’t Think the people that refinanced his debt are too thrilled about Melnyk pulling out of Lebreton and not seeing any revenues that could have come from profits of the development.

There is a giant financial Dung show brewing for Melnyk IMO and i doubt he managed to refinance his loan at an advantageous rate.

wprager


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Unfortunately we won't know until we know, you know? Until then we can only hope and speculate.

He may really be broke, or he may have the money but is really a tightwad.

Flo The Action

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wprager wrote:Unfortunately we won't know until we know, you know? Until then we can only hope and speculate.

He may really be broke, or he may have the money but is really a tightwad.  

Well ill speculate that with all the cuts to personnel and trading for player that have a lower salary than cap hit combined with TV money that he may be making money even without filling the stadium. Quite sad actually

wprager

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They still have an actual payroll of around $50M (assuming White gets at least $2.5M). Gate receipts for 2017-18 were $35M (https://www.statista.com/statistics/374765/ottawa-senators-gate-receipts/) and it was less than that last year and will likely be even less this year.

The NBC deal Brooks in about $6.7M per team and the Rogers deal is $14.4M.

So even with the 2017-18 gate receipts they'd be just barely about to cover payroll. Concessions and parking will take a big hit when they drop prices and only have 10K customers, not sure if that will be enough to cover the rest of the salaries (gm, coaches, admin staff, trainers, etc.) and expenses (travel, per-diems, Belleville).

I think they are still bleeding money unless they can get close to selling out most games, and then playoff revenue brings them over the top. With S
season ticket sales in the 6-8K range and no playoffs they will be losing quite a bit.

If he's really broke he's not going to last more than another 2 years


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Flo The Action

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wprager wrote:They still have an actual payroll of around $50M (assuming White gets at least $2.5M).  Gate receipts for 2017-18 were $35M (https://www.statista.com/statistics/374765/ottawa-senators-gate-receipts/) and it was less than that last year and will likely be even less this year.

The NBC deal Brooks in about $6.7M per team and the Rogers deal is $14.4M.  

So even with the 2017-18 gate receipts they'd be just barely about to cover payroll. Concessions and parking will take a big hit when they drop prices and only have 10K customers, not sure if that will be enough to cover the rest of the salaries (gm, coaches, admin staff, trainers, etc.) and expenses (travel, per-diems, Belleville).

I think they are still bleeding money unless they can get close to selling out most games, and then playoff revenue brings them over the top. With S
season ticket sales in the 6-8K range and no playoffs they will be losing quite a bit.  

If he's really broke he's not going to last more than another 2 years


That’s a good round out. Do you have the figures for Concession, Merch and revenue sharing? Depending on escrow i think Melnyk is likely over the break even point.

I would also say that we might get more walk in revenue this year than last. For sure season tix will be down though

wprager

wprager
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I don't have any figures for concessions, but with reduced prices ahead announced and the likelihood of reduced customer base I don't think that's a significant source of income for Melnyk. Same with parking.

Walk up traffic will be iffy. There are still those who are waiting for the downtown location, while enjoying games on their 4K sets (comfortable couch seats, cheap beer and snacks, no washroom lineups and you can be in your bed 10 seconds after the three star selection).


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Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

wprager

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I did read an article a few months ago which suggested that Melnyk, even if he's broke as many assume, can still hang on for a couple years.

I'm just looking at the LTIR insured contacts which allow Melnyk to ice a team with payroll around $50M.  $15.3M this year, dropping to under $5M next year. Assuming that 80% of that is covered by insurance his real money payroll will have to go up roughly $8M next year and  another $2M the year after that.



Last edited by wprager on Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:33 am; edited 1 time in total


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

PTFlea

PTFlea
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I hate that Diddler melnyk. Diddle off please

wprager

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"Please"? You're so polite.


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

PTFlea

PTFlea
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Whatever makes him Diddle off.

Cap'n Clutch

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As frustrating as Melnyk is and has been, it's certainly not the story line I'm looking forward to this season.


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Cap'n Clutch

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Still curious how the Flames are going to fit Tckachuk in under the cap, sign Mangiopane AND still try to ice a better team than last season.  I don't see it happening.


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Cap'n Clutch wrote:Still curious how the Flames are going to fit Tckachuk in under the cap, sign Mangiopane AND still try to ice a better team than last season.  I don't see it happening.

Yup starting to feel the cap crunch. They might have to trade a good high salary player for a younger one with similar upside.
This years cap really did a number on a lot of teams

DefenceWinsChampionships


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Trying to move the 'prospects' talk here. Anyway:

Formenton, Brannstrom, Norris, Brown, Davidsson, Abramov the six prospects I'm looking at following the most in Belleville this season. Should be interesting to see what happens with the goaltending down there too. Veronneau, Balcers, Chlapik likely the first call-ups or at least have the edge in making the team out of camp, and it's hard to see Batherson as anything but a lock. On top of that, Carcone, Parker and Gruden could turn some heads and Szwarz/Rodewald can score some goals. Definitely going to be competitive in Belleville.

PTFlea

PTFlea
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DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Trying to move the 'prospects' talk here. Anyway:

Formenton, Brannstrom, Norris, Brown, Davidsson, Abramov the six prospects I'm looking at following the most in Belleville this season. Should be interesting to see what happens with the goaltending down there too. Veronneau, Balcers, Chlapik likely the first call-ups or at least have the edge in making the team out of camp, and it's hard to see Batherson as anything but a lock. On top of that, Carcone, Parker and Gruden could turn some heads and Szwarz/Rodewald can score some goals. Definitely going to be competitive in Belleville.

I hope Formenton can put it together offensively at the NHL level, he's got ridiculous speed, but can his hands catch up. Someone here said similar last season and it was bang on.

I'm so curious to see some of the rookie tourneys and see some of these guys in action like Davidsson and Norris and to see if Brown has put in the effort needed to come in in tip top shape and take advantage of being a huge call up.

All of this is very exciting to me, actually. The Sens games will be fun to watch - because they'll bring top levels of competitiveness.

Lagoon

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PTFlea wrote:
DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Trying to move the 'prospects' talk here. Anyway:

Formenton, Brannstrom, Norris, Brown, Davidsson, Abramov the six prospects I'm looking at following the most in Belleville this season. Should be interesting to see what happens with the goaltending down there too. Veronneau, Balcers, Chlapik likely the first call-ups or at least have the edge in making the team out of camp, and it's hard to see Batherson as anything but a lock. On top of that, Carcone, Parker and Gruden could turn some heads and Szwarz/Rodewald can score some goals. Definitely going to be competitive in Belleville.

I hope Formenton can put it together offensively at the NHL level, he's got ridiculous speed, but can his hands catch up.   Someone here said similar last season and it was bang on.  

Sounds like me, but not sure if I’m the one that said it on this site. I like saying it for players that are blessed with elite speed, but have just average hockey sense and skill.

tim1_2

tim1_2
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Lagoon wrote:
PTFlea wrote:
DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Trying to move the 'prospects' talk here. Anyway:

Formenton, Brannstrom, Norris, Brown, Davidsson, Abramov the six prospects I'm looking at following the most in Belleville this season. Should be interesting to see what happens with the goaltending down there too. Veronneau, Balcers, Chlapik likely the first call-ups or at least have the edge in making the team out of camp, and it's hard to see Batherson as anything but a lock. On top of that, Carcone, Parker and Gruden could turn some heads and Szwarz/Rodewald can score some goals. Definitely going to be competitive in Belleville.

I hope Formenton can put it together offensively at the NHL level, he's got ridiculous speed, but can his hands catch up.   Someone here said similar last season and it was bang on.  

Sounds like me, but not sure if I’m the one that said it on this site. I like saying it for players that are blessed with elite speed, but have just average hockey sense and skill.

Pretty sure it was Prags that said it.

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