Sens19 wrote:well they said if new additions Leclaire and Kovalev step up big time we would be in 9th spot. But I honestly believe Kovalev will be on fire if put with Spezza and Alfie. And that's of course assuming Heatley gets traded. And I have no reason to think Leclaire won't do well for us, unless he gets injured which at this point I'd like to be more positive and hope for a healthy season from him
Forget about the addition of Leclaire and Kovalev for a moment.
Take the second half of the season, subtract Heatley's contribution (admittedly not a whole lot) but add in a replacement part who is motivated. Now extend that record to cover a whole season; remember that Gerber has been replaced by Elliott, and Auld by Brodeur (or whoever) in this scenario.
My estimate is a loss of a grand total of 10 goals and about 10 assists on the offensive side, but no significant change on the defensive side. If you put Kovalev in as the replacement player, even that difference disappears.
Now correct for the addition of Leclaire, and give the offense a normal season instead of a slump (and take away a coach that preaches defense above and beyond everything else, to the point of stifling the offense).
Now Ottawa ties or wins most of the 10 one-goal losses, probably ties and maybe wins a few of the two goal losses, and maybe squeaks out an OT loss in one of the thirteen
three goal losses. It only takes an additional five wins to put them into eighth, assuming last year's numbers remain true to form.
I'd predict Ottawa finishing 7th or 8th.
As an aside - I can see justification for NYR wanting Heatley - they had 10 one-goal losses, and 16 two-goal losses, so at a goal every second game, he could be worth a whole lot in the standings.