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THN regular season predictions

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31THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Wed Aug 12, 2009 8:09 pm

Flo The Action


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Sens19 wrote:well they said if new additions Leclaire and Kovalev step up big time we would be in 9th spot. But I honestly believe Kovalev will be on fire if put with Spezza and Alfie. And that's of course assuming Heatley gets traded. And I have no reason to think Leclaire won't do well for us, unless he gets injured which at this point I'd like to be more positive and hope for a healthy season from him
as much as i'm not the biggest fan of kovalev i have to admit that it will be pretty hard for kovalev not to produce next to a spezza trying to make the canadian team and, well, Alfredsson....

come to think of it, why isn't the season starting now! Ahhhhh!

my prediction..? 5th.

32THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Wed Aug 12, 2009 8:12 pm

Acrobat


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Sens19 wrote:well they said if new additions Leclaire and Kovalev step up big time we would be in 9th spot. But I honestly believe Kovalev will be on fire if put with Spezza and Alfie. And that's of course assuming Heatley gets traded. And I have no reason to think Leclaire won't do well for us, unless he gets injured which at this point I'd like to be more positive and hope for a healthy season from him

Forget about the addition of Leclaire and Kovalev for a moment.

Take the second half of the season, subtract Heatley's contribution (admittedly not a whole lot) but add in a replacement part who is motivated. Now extend that record to cover a whole season; remember that Gerber has been replaced by Elliott, and Auld by Brodeur (or whoever) in this scenario.

My estimate is a loss of a grand total of 10 goals and about 10 assists on the offensive side, but no significant change on the defensive side. If you put Kovalev in as the replacement player, even that difference disappears.

Now correct for the addition of Leclaire, and give the offense a normal season instead of a slump (and take away a coach that preaches defense above and beyond everything else, to the point of stifling the offense).

Now Ottawa ties or wins most of the 10 one-goal losses, probably ties and maybe wins a few of the two goal losses, and maybe squeaks out an OT loss in one of the thirteen three goal losses. It only takes an additional five wins to put them into eighth, assuming last year's numbers remain true to form.

I'd predict Ottawa finishing 7th or 8th.

As an aside - I can see justification for NYR wanting Heatley - they had 10 one-goal losses, and 16 two-goal losses, so at a goal every second game, he could be worth a whole lot in the standings.

33THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Wed Aug 12, 2009 8:17 pm

Guest


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Ottawa will be better in the Shootout with Kovalev in and Heatley out. That alone could translate into 4-5 points easy. We were one of the worst.

Kovalev/Spezza/Ruttu/Alfredsson choose 3 and let's get'er done!!!

34THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Wed Aug 12, 2009 9:30 pm

Acrobat

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Funny enough, we only had four in the top 100 last year - Alfie (5/9), Comrie (1/2), Ruutu (2/5) and Fisher (2/5). Spezza was 3/10, the rest were "0-fer"s. In total: 13/42, or a bit less than 31%.

It'd be hard not to get better, even if we had Elliott and Leclaire in the shooting rotation.

35THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Wed Aug 12, 2009 10:36 pm

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
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Weak. I thought they'd slip us in 8th, even 7th. Meh, we'll see how it all shakes out.

36THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Thu Aug 13, 2009 12:14 am

Sens19

Sens19
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Acrobat wrote:
Sens19 wrote:well they said if new additions Leclaire and Kovalev step up big time we would be in 9th spot. But I honestly believe Kovalev will be on fire if put with Spezza and Alfie. And that's of course assuming Heatley gets traded. And I have no reason to think Leclaire won't do well for us, unless he gets injured which at this point I'd like to be more positive and hope for a healthy season from him

Forget about the addition of Leclaire and Kovalev for a moment.

Take the second half of the season, subtract Heatley's contribution (admittedly not a whole lot) but add in a replacement part who is motivated. Now extend that record to cover a whole season; remember that Gerber has been replaced by Elliott, and Auld by Brodeur (or whoever) in this scenario.

My estimate is a loss of a grand total of 10 goals and about 10 assists on the offensive side, but no significant change on the defensive side. If you put Kovalev in as the replacement player, even that difference disappears.

Now correct for the addition of Leclaire, and give the offense a normal season instead of a slump (and take away a coach that preaches defense above and beyond everything else, to the point of stifling the offense).

Now Ottawa ties or wins most of the 10 one-goal losses, probably ties and maybe wins a few of the two goal losses, and maybe squeaks out an OT loss in one of the thirteen three goal losses. It only takes an additional five wins to put them into eighth, assuming last year's numbers remain true to form.

I'd predict Ottawa finishing 7th or 8th.

As an aside - I can see justification for NYR wanting Heatley - they had 10 one-goal losses, and 16 two-goal losses, so at a goal every second game, he could be worth a whole lot in the standings.

That's a very good breakdown of the season. Why isn't that they hire people like you to do those rankings tongue :___:

http://sens19-hockeytalk.blogspot.com/

37THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:54 am

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
Sens19 wrote:well they said if new additions Leclaire and Kovalev step up big time we would be in 9th spot. But I honestly believe Kovalev will be on fire if put with Spezza and Alfie. And that's of course assuming Heatley gets traded. And I have no reason to think Leclaire won't do well for us, unless he gets injured which at this point I'd like to be more positive and hope for a healthy season from him

They also said "they'll likely challenge for a low-seed playoff spot". Last time I checked that meant ending up 6-8 in the conference, not 9. So it looks like they've already decided that:

1. Leclaire and Kovalev will not be stepping it up, and
2. Heatley will not be on the team*

Which is still cause for celebration. Cheers

* If Heatley is still here, then we are at least as good (better on the PP and in shootouts) as the team that went 19-11-4 under Clouston, which translates to 101 points and a playoff spot.


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

38THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Thu Aug 13, 2009 1:57 pm

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
Here is another "source", if you can stomach any more of this:

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nhl/news;_ylt=AnZ5U9fndkKkNTGXqKmO4XoJfwM6?slug=rm-nhlpower081209&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

He ranks Ottawa 22nd in the league, one behind Toronto, sitting at 21. And if you think this is strictly a Leafs Nation bias, think again. Buffalo is at 20 and Montreal is at 16! That's just stupid.

Here's what he's got to say about those four teams (save you the trouble of clicking, and deny them a few page loads):


16. Montreal Canadiens - If the Habs don’t have enough new faces already – Scott Gomez, Mike Cammalleri, Brian Gionta, Travis Moen, Paul Mara, Hal Gill and Jaroslav Spacek – word is GM Bob Gainey wants to add a big center to his revamped lineup and has interest in San Jose’s Patrick Marleau.

20. Buffalo Sabres– It’s good to see a team that missed out on the playoffs for
consecutive seasons not make longtime GM Darcy Regier and coach Lindy
Ruff scapegoats.

21. Toronto Maple Leafs – Normally one might worry about Luke Schenn falling victim to the sophomore slump, but he’s going to find a blue line that now includes Mike Komisarek, Francois Beauchemin and Garnet Exelby far more helpful than the one he helped patrol during his rookie season last year.

22. Ottawa Senators - If one thing is for sure, it’s that Dany Heatley isn’t going to be elected team captain here.


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

39THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:34 pm

LeCaptain

LeCaptain
All-Star
All-Star
See, that's what I was talking about. MTL ranked 16th and there's mention of a guy who will probably not play there in the description.

40THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:53 pm

Riprock

Riprock
All-Star
All-Star
You didn't know? Montreal will land every Francophone and/or Francophone-sounding player (Marleau is not French).

41THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:10 pm

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
Co-Founder
I'm not positive I understand all the negativity around the Sens from 'news' sites etc.

I see:

Foligno - Spezza - Alfredsson
Heatley - Fisher - Kovalev
Kelly - Regin - Shannon
Ruutu - Winchester - Neil

Kuba - Campoli
Volchenkov - Phillips
Lee - Picard

Leclaire
Elliott

as a pretty good lineup. Not challenging for the Conference or anything, but a threat to win most nights.

Maybe I'm just seeing it with rose-coloured glasses on. cool) Nope, I still see this lineup as interesting. We'll need to add a real D-man for the top 4 if something goes wrong, but I don't mind it too much.

42THN regular season predictions - Page 3 Empty Re: THN regular season predictions on Fri Aug 14, 2009 12:03 am

LeCaptain

LeCaptain
All-Star
All-Star
Don;t you get it? It's a conspiration from Bryan Murray (he is a fan of Dumbledore). He contacted all the journalists and told them to give the least expectations possible for the team.

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