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General Hockey Talk - Injuries, signings, factoids + other news from around the league

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PTFlea


Co-Founder
Co-Founder
wprager wrote:$3.6M x 5 years for Schenn. More than Toronto wanted to pay, but they wanted the term.

Holy Dung, what a great deal.

NEELY


Mod
Mod
Da lil Guy wrote:Don't know about Carkner.

I recall reading that the Sens had a deal in place for Phillips but he wouldn't waive his no move. I personally suspect they would have traded him if he'd accepted.

I think he would have waived if nothing got done in terms of a contract.

tim1_2


Franchise Player
Franchise Player
It was a situation where Phillips really didn't want to leave, and we felt some loyalty to him. That being said, if he didn't have a NMC, he would've been gone. We didn't want to lose him for nothing as a FA, so the best way for everybody to save face was to resign him.

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
SeawaySensFan wrote:
tim1_2 wrote:Karlsson should get money somewhere between Schenn and Myers. I like that Schenn contract, as it helps lower the bar a little (although, yeah, Karlsson and Schenn are quite different). Maybe $4 - $4.5 per, depending on this season?

Here's the "bad" news, Karlsson got 45 points in a mediocre season. He'll probably hit 50-60 this year and for years to come. Anything less than $5m per season will be a generous discount.

With his 45 points he was still -30. Like I said in the Meyers post, he has some defensive deficiencies he'll need to work on. Scoring points is sexy, but the name of the game is scoring more than the other team. Yes, yes, it's a meaningless stat for the most part, but when there is a huge discrepancy between members of the same team (Karlsson - Carkner, for example) then there's something there. And it's not just the +/- or whatever way you want to measure defensive prowess, but also his physical play. He's not going to be a punishing hitter -- ever. While hitting someone is not the only way to defend, and it may not matter as much in the regular season, it makes a difference in the playoffs when you are playing the same team 5-7 times in two weeks. A punishing hitter will "soften-up" the opposing forwards in addition to not allowing them to score. Karlsson will do the latter but not the former. A "softened-up" opponent makes it easier for your guys to score.

All that to say, although Karlsson scored more points than Schenn, Luke had better defensive numbers and is a much better hitter. Does this make it a "wash"? Impossible to say. Scoring is sexy, there is no denying it, and a high-scoring defenseman will typically make more than his shutdown counterpart. But the talk was that Toronto could have had him for $3M on a 3 year term, and given the Sens' situation on the back-end, they may want to take 2-3 years to evaluate which of their offensive D-men are their long-term keepers. It may still be Karlsson, but if they decide to give him a 3-year deal I think it will be at $4M or below.


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

spader

spader
All-Star
All-Star
wprager wrote:
SeawaySensFan wrote:
tim1_2 wrote:Karlsson should get money somewhere between Schenn and Myers. I like that Schenn contract, as it helps lower the bar a little (although, yeah, Karlsson and Schenn are quite different). Maybe $4 - $4.5 per, depending on this season?

Here's the "bad" news, Karlsson got 45 points in a mediocre season. He'll probably hit 50-60 this year and for years to come. Anything less than $5m per season will be a generous discount.

With his 45 points he was still -30. Like I said in the Meyers post, he has some defensive deficiencies he'll need to work on. Scoring points is sexy, but the name of the game is scoring more than the other team. Yes, yes, it's a meaningless stat for the most part, but when there is a huge discrepancy between members of the same team (Karlsson - Carkner, for example) then there's something there. And it's not just the +/- or whatever way you want to measure defensive prowess, but also his physical play. He's not going to be a punishing hitter -- ever. While hitting someone is not the only way to defend, and it may not matter as much in the regular season, it makes a difference in the playoffs when you are playing the same team 5-7 times in two weeks. A punishing hitter will "soften-up" the opposing forwards in addition to not allowing them to score. Karlsson will do the latter but not the former. A "softened-up" opponent makes it easier for your guys to score.

All that to say, although Karlsson scored more points than Schenn, Luke had better defensive numbers and is a much better hitter. Does this make it a "wash"? Impossible to say. Scoring is sexy, there is no denying it, and a high-scoring defenseman will typically make more than his shutdown counterpart. But the talk was that Toronto could have had him for $3M on a 3 year term, and given the Sens' situation on the back-end, they may want to take 2-3 years to evaluate which of their offensive D-men are their long-term keepers. It may still be Karlsson, but if they decide to give him a 3-year deal I think it will be at $4M or below.

Under $4M? No chance, imo. Last season was a defensive nightmare for the whole team. It didn't help that Elliott stood aside and let everything past him. He skewed the d-numbers considerably. This year will be a much better indication.

Da lil Guy

Da lil Guy
Rookie
Rookie
I'm a little surprised Schenn's camp gave up that kind of term on a second deal.

It takes him all the way to UFA - but I would have thought for a second deal they (Schenn's camp) would have preferred to take him to the point that his arbitration rights kick in. His cap hit isn't all that much higher than it was on his rookie deal, and over that term, it's a fairly astonishing accomplishment for the Leafs management.

I don't think they bought any UFA years, but they do get all his arbitration years, which I think is huge. The only drawback is that it will leave them in the position that they don't retain his rights at the end of the deal, and in that respect they might have preferred a 4 year deal that left him RFA at the end.

This could represent splitting the difference - Schenn may have wanted 3 years while the team preferred 4, and they settled on 5. But that compromise still favours the team, in the balance. Especially since they don't seem to have paid much of a premium for those extra years.

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
TheAvatar wrote:
Da lil Guy wrote:The elephant in the room in the Karlsson negotiations, if he can't change something this season, will be that he is quite possibly the worst defenseman, defensively speaking, in the National Hockey League.

Honestly, I'm not worried about that. Name me one d-man in ottawa that played really well defensively. Even Phillips was god awful.

Carkner was a 0. Gonchar, surprisingly, was only -15, and I believe he was much worse before he got detached from Karlsson. Kuba was -26 and I wonder how much of that happened late, when he got re-partnered with Karlsson.

Anyhow, I'm not trying to carp on Karlsson. He is what he is, and a lot of his - will probably go away when the team plays better defensively as a unit. If Karlsson gets burned pinching and a two-on-one the other way results in a goal, some of that has to be on the forward that did not cover his point. Karlsson played big PK minutes late in the season so that has to count for something (mind you, maybe his quickness is a huge plus playing the box, and his size is a huge minus in five-on-five).


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
spader wrote:
wprager wrote:
SeawaySensFan wrote:
tim1_2 wrote:Karlsson should get money somewhere between Schenn and Myers. I like that Schenn contract, as it helps lower the bar a little (although, yeah, Karlsson and Schenn are quite different). Maybe $4 - $4.5 per, depending on this season?

Here's the "bad" news, Karlsson got 45 points in a mediocre season. He'll probably hit 50-60 this year and for years to come. Anything less than $5m per season will be a generous discount.

With his 45 points he was still -30. Like I said in the Meyers post, he has some defensive deficiencies he'll need to work on. Scoring points is sexy, but the name of the game is scoring more than the other team. Yes, yes, it's a meaningless stat for the most part, but when there is a huge discrepancy between members of the same team (Karlsson - Carkner, for example) then there's something there. And it's not just the +/- or whatever way you want to measure defensive prowess, but also his physical play. He's not going to be a punishing hitter -- ever. While hitting someone is not the only way to defend, and it may not matter as much in the regular season, it makes a difference in the playoffs when you are playing the same team 5-7 times in two weeks. A punishing hitter will "soften-up" the opposing forwards in addition to not allowing them to score. Karlsson will do the latter but not the former. A "softened-up" opponent makes it easier for your guys to score.

All that to say, although Karlsson scored more points than Schenn, Luke had better defensive numbers and is a much better hitter. Does this make it a "wash"? Impossible to say. Scoring is sexy, there is no denying it, and a high-scoring defenseman will typically make more than his shutdown counterpart. But the talk was that Toronto could have had him for $3M on a 3 year term, and given the Sens' situation on the back-end, they may want to take 2-3 years to evaluate which of their offensive D-men are their long-term keepers. It may still be Karlsson, but if they decide to give him a 3-year deal I think it will be at $4M or below.

Under $4M? No chance, imo. Last season was a defensive nightmare for the whole team. It didn't help that Elliott stood aside and let everything past him. He skewed the d-numbers considerably. This year will be a much better indication.

And what if, this season, Karlsson is a -15 while Carkner is a +15 (i.e. the same delta as last season)? If Karlsson scores 50-55 points, is above -5 and grabs another ASG appearance, then he'd be negotiating over $4M for sure. If he gets those same points but is still -10 or worse, and Rundblad or Zibanejad or Filatov are representing the Sens (although, to be fair, it *will be* Alfie and perhaps one other Sen player) then has he shown enough to earn either a long-term deal or a $5M cap hit?


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

tim1_2

tim1_2
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
Don't mention Karlsson's ASG appearance last year. We HAD to send someone. This year he'll probably go again, barring a terrible year, by virtue of the game being here.

spader

spader
All-Star
All-Star
wprager wrote:And what if, this season, Karlsson is a -15 while Carkner is a +15 (i.e. the same delta as last season)? If Karlsson scores 50-55 points, is above -5 and grabs another ASG appearance, then he'd be negotiating over $4M for sure. If he gets those same points but is still -10 or worse, and Rundblad or Zibanejad or Filatov are representing the Sens (although, to be fair, it *will be* Alfie and perhaps one other Sen player) then has he shown enough to earn either a long-term deal or a $5M cap hit?

For someone who called +/- "a meaningless stat" above, you sure seem to put a lot of stock into it.

EDIT: regarding the Carkner/Karlsson discrepancy, what was the difference in ice time last year? Every extra second that one player was on the ice with Elliott could skew that data. I'm not saying that EK wasn't far, far worse defensively than MC, but there's more to the story than +/-.

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
spader wrote:
wprager wrote:And what if, this season, Karlsson is a -15 while Carkner is a +15 (i.e. the same delta as last season)? If Karlsson scores 50-55 points, is above -5 and grabs another ASG appearance, then he'd be negotiating over $4M for sure. If he gets those same points but is still -10 or worse, and Rundblad or Zibanejad or Filatov are representing the Sens (although, to be fair, it *will be* Alfie and perhaps one other Sen player) then has he shown enough to earn either a long-term deal or a $5M cap hit?

For someone who called +/- "a meaningless stat" above, you sure seem to put a lot of stock into it.

Re-read my post. The stat, in general, may be somewhat meaningless, but when you consider two defensemen on the same team, and there is a large gap (30 point difference between Karlsson and Carkner last year) it becomes statistically significant.


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

spader

spader
All-Star
All-Star
wprager wrote:
spader wrote:
wprager wrote:And what if, this season, Karlsson is a -15 while Carkner is a +15 (i.e. the same delta as last season)? If Karlsson scores 50-55 points, is above -5 and grabs another ASG appearance, then he'd be negotiating over $4M for sure. If he gets those same points but is still -10 or worse, and Rundblad or Zibanejad or Filatov are representing the Sens (although, to be fair, it *will be* Alfie and perhaps one other Sen player) then has he shown enough to earn either a long-term deal or a $5M cap hit?

For someone who called +/- "a meaningless stat" above, you sure seem to put a lot of stock into it.

Re-read my post. The stat, in general, may be somewhat meaningless, but when you consider two defensemen on the same team, and there is a large gap (30 point difference between Karlsson and Carkner last year) it becomes statistically significant.

Read my edit. When you're comparing two defensemen on the same team, and Elliott is on that team, +/- is useful, but doesn't present the whole picture.

Da lil Guy

Da lil Guy
Rookie
Rookie
My take on Karlsson is that he doesn't give up more chances than you'd expect while pinching offensively - his speed, I think, actually lets him recover somewhat better than most.

Two places where you notice really glaring problems, though, are:

Where the other team plays chip and chase - Karlsson coughs up the puck avoiding the hit in the corner. His speed can't save him over the relatively short distance and once he's caught in the corner it's a fairly simple matter for the other side to push him off the puck even where he doesn't cough it right up.

The other, of course, is protecting the front of the net where his size makes him extremely inneffective. Opposing players can basically walk out from the corners to the front of the net with impunity.

I don't think it's impossible for him to address these problems - certainly there are smaller defencemen who have managed to remain relatively effective in their own end - but he'll need to get stronger and find ways to compensate for his size with speed and stickwork.

spader

spader
All-Star
All-Star
Da lil Guy wrote:My take on Karlsson is that he doesn't give up more chances than you'd expect while pinching offensively - his speed, I think, actually lets him recover somewhat better than most.

Two places where you notice really glaring problems, though, are:

Where the other team plays chip and chase - Karlsson coughs up the puck avoiding the hit in the corner. His speed can't save him over the relatively short distance and once he's caught in the corner it's a fairly simple matter for the other side to push him off the puck even where he doesn't cough it right up.

The other, of course, is protecting the front of the net where his size makes him extremely inneffective. Opposing players can basically walk out from the corners to the front of the net with impunity.

I don't think it's impossible for him to address these problems - certainly there are smaller defencemen who have managed to remain relatively effective in their own end - but he'll need to get stronger and find ways to compensate for his size with speed and stickwork.


I hope he's working with Alfie on stickwork. Alfie's always been able to make the smart play and use his stick to disrupt the other player. It would be great if EK could knock opposing players off the puck, but, barring that, if he can get better at takeaways and disruptions, he'll buy all kinds of time and his defensive game will improve.

Da lil Guy

Da lil Guy
Rookie
Rookie
I don't know where Michalek ranks in terms of 'cost per point' in his two seasons here but I would suspect that wherever he is on that list he's surrounded by a mix of enforcers, stay at home D, and veterans who have dwindled past their prime. Considering his salary in actual dollars will rise as high as $6million, he's got to start getting more than 33 points a season.

spader

spader
All-Star
All-Star
Da lil Guy wrote:I don't know where Michalek ranks in terms of 'cost per point' in his two seasons here but I would suspect that wherever he is on that list he's surrounded by a mix of enforcers, stay at home D, and veterans who have dwindled past their prime. Considering his salary in actual dollars will rise as high as $6million, he's got to start getting more than 33 points a season.

I think he'll be a good barometer this year. Like Filatov, if he's performing well, that likely means that the team is doing well. I think there'll be a direct correlation between MM's production and that of the team as a whole. If he's putting up good numbers (trending towards 50-60), I think that will be an indication that PM's system is working and some of the other "as long as __________ stays healthy and _________ continues to progress" conditions are being met.

Da lil Guy

Da lil Guy
Rookie
Rookie
A lot of ifs. Especially concerning health.

spader

spader
All-Star
All-Star
Agreed. Again, I think we have a couple of players that will act as barometers. If you ignored hockey for the first half of the season, I think that there are players whose splits would tell you most of the story of the portion of the season that you missed. Filatov and MM are going to be two of those players, imo.

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